Stock Selection: DeepSeek R1's picks for 2026-09-08
DeepSeek R1 picked AMD, MU, NVDA, ORCL, MRVL for a 1-day horizon. Portfolio return vs SPY: +1.64%. Picks that beat SPY: 60%.
| Experiment | Stock Selection |
|---|---|
| Model | DeepSeek R1 |
| Prompt version | stock-selection-v4 |
| Asked | |
| Horizon | 1-day |
| Measured from | 2026-09-04 |
| Measured to | 2026-09-08 |
| Benchmark | SPY |
| Status | Settled |
| Portfolio return vs SPY | +1.64% |
| Picks that beat SPY | 60% |
| Benchmark return | -0.55% |
The picks
| Rank | Symbol | Return | Confidence | vs benchmark | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AMD | +5.90% | 82% | +6.45% | Yes |
| 2 | MU | -1.61% | 80% | -1.06% | No |
| 3 | NVDA | -2.01% | 78% | -1.46% | No |
| 4 | ORCL | +2.36% | 75% | +2.90% | Yes |
| 5 | MRVL | +0.83% | 72% | +1.38% | Yes |
The model's market view
Markets closed Monday for Labor Day, leaving a four-day trading week. Friday's stronger-than-expected jobs report (162K jobs added vs. 56K expected) has reignited September Fed rate-hike fears, pressuring the broader S&P 500 which closed down 0.38% at 7,718.60 on Sept 4. However, the semiconductor sector bucked the trend, surging 3.37% amid the OpenAI GPT-6 Astra launch, which has revived the AI hardware trade. The market is now hyper-focused on Wednesday's 10-year Treasury auction and Friday's critical CPI report. With liquidity thinner due to the holiday, volatility could be amplified.
Why each pick
AMD
Thesis: AMD is a primary beneficiary of the AI hardware rotation, surging 4.69% to $477.57 on Sept 4 as the semiconductor sector rose 3.37%. The company's Q2 revenue grew 50% YoY to $11.54B, and with OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra driving new compute demand, the AI chip narrative remains strong. Technical momentum favors continued outperformance. Risks: Elevated valuation (~45x P/E); strong CPI data could pressure high-beta semis; profit-taking after a >4% single-day gain.
MU
Thesis: Micron was the standout performer in the memory sector, surging 6.1% on Sept 4 to $1,016.59. Pre-market data shows continued strength, with MU rising over 6% to a new all-time high above $1,125. The HBM4 expansion and memory shortage narrative are fully validated, and the DRAM ETF broke out on Friday with targets pointing higher. Risks: Cyclical memory exposure; potential profit-taking after a strong run; macro demand slowdown could reverse the cycle.
NVDA
Thesis: Nvidia closed at $230.36 on Sept 4, up 0.84%, and is trading just ~1.5% below its all-time high. The company's $12.9B acquisition of Hugging Face reinforces the 'compute + ecosystem' narrative. CEO Jensen Huang's declaration that AGI has arrived, coupled with the GPT-6 Astra launch, positions NVDA as the ultimate AI bellwether. Risks: Director insider selling (~$411M); high multiple vulnerability to rising rates; pre-market data shows some weakness (-0.26%).
ORCL
Thesis: Oracle is the only major tech earnings this week, reporting Tuesday after the close. The stock is up 3.08% to $158.78 as of Sept 4, with a 5.5% gain recently on AI/cloud optimism. The market will scrutinize cloud infrastructure and AI-related revenue for signs of corporate spending resilience. A strong report could set a positive tone for tech, while the earnings release in a holiday-shortened week could amplify any beat. Risks: High event risk; a miss could reinforce IT budget tightening fears; valuation pressure from rising yields.
MRVL
Thesis: Marvell Technology surged over 7% on Sept 4 as a leader in the optical communications and AI semiconductor space. Pre-market data shows MRVL gaining 4.8%, indicating sustained momentum. The company is a direct beneficiary of the AI infrastructure buildout, and the sector rotation into hardware plays continues to favor MRVL. Risks: High beta to semis; potential volatility if CPI surprises to the upside; profit-taking after a strong run.
Other models on the same run
| Model | Picks | Portfolio return vs SPY | Picks that beat SPY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | NVDA, AAPL, META, MSFT, AMZN | -0.54% | 20% |
| GPT-5.6 Sol | SOXL, MU, SNDK, NVDA, IONQ | +1.31% | 60% |
| Grok 4.5 | AAPL, NVDA, XLE, MU, AVGO | +0.41% | 40% |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | NVDA, AAPL, ORCL, AVGO, MSFT | +0.75% | 40% |
| Kimi | XLE, BIDU, STRL, SMTC, WDC | +2.44% | 80% |
Written up on ForecastNest Insights: Stock Selection: DeepSeek R1's picks for 2026-09-08.
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