Stock Selection: Muse Spark 1.1's picks for 2026-09-21
Muse Spark 1.1 picked GOOG, NVDA, JPM, MSFT, AAPL for a 1-day horizon. Portfolio return vs SPY: -0.27%. Picks that beat SPY: 80%.
| Experiment | Stock Selection |
|---|---|
| Model | Muse Spark 1.1 |
| Prompt version | stock-selection-v8 |
| Asked | |
| Horizon | 1-day |
| Measured from | 2026-09-21 |
| Measured to | 2026-09-22 |
| Benchmark | SPY |
| Status | Settled |
| Portfolio return vs SPY | -0.27% |
| Picks that beat SPY | 80% |
| Benchmark return | +0.57% |
The picks
| Rank | Symbol | Return | Confidence | vs benchmark | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GOOG | +1.27% | 74% | +0.70% | Yes |
| 2 | NVDA | +1.46% | 72% | +0.89% | Yes |
| 3 | JPM | -3.49% | 70% | -4.06% | No |
| 4 | MSFT | +0.71% | 68% | +0.13% | Yes |
| 5 | AAPL | +1.58% | 66% | +1.00% | Yes |
The model's market view
Sep 21 Monday window to Sep 22. SPY Sep 18 close $761.69 vs all-time $777.88 Aug 13 per MacroTrends, weekly -0.3% Sep 14-18 per Mavefund. Finnhub Sep 19 live: JPM $351.31 +0.469% open $353.67 high $354.5 low $351.27 prev $349.67, XLF $55.84 -0.035% open $56.05 high $56.205 low $55.72 prev $55.86, XLE $62.71 -2.48% open $63.17 high $63.7 low $62.61 prev $64.31, MSFT $493.815 +0.007% open $494.945 high $497.39 low $491.5 prev $493.78, GOOG $350.65 +1.81% open $346.19 high $353.3 low $344.8 prev $344.41, NVDA $224.39 +0.95% open $222.935 high $224.93 low $221.56 prev $222.27, AAPL $336.68 +0.16% open $335.28 high $338.22 low $333.05 prev $336.13. Fed hike Sep 16 12-0 to 3.75-4.00% digested, 5-day SPY -0.3% washout. Sep 21-22 likely relief with megacap growth leading.
Why each pick
GOOG
Alphabet momentum strongest Sep 19 +1.81% $350.65 open $346.19 high $353.3 low $344.8 prev $344.41 +6.24 vs SPY -0.3% weekly. Finnhub live Sep 19 close. 5-day +4.53% 1-month +2.6% 6-month +17.36% YTD +11.74% beta 1.20. Benefits from AI search, buy calls $415 upside per MarketBeat Sep 19. Most recent regular close Sep 19 used.
NVDA
Nvidia rebound Sep 19 $224.39 +0.95% open $222.935 high $224.93 low $221.56 prev $222.27 +2.12. Finnhub live Sep 19. 5-day +2.79% 1-month +4.5% 6-month +29.93% YTD +20.32%. SOXL +3.25% Sep 18 and $118.56 open $117.03 high $119.70 shows semis bid. SPY $761.69 flat. Most recent close Sep 19 used, beta 2.22 for alpha vs SPY.
JPM
JPMorgan top bank benefits from 3.75-4.00% hike Sep 16 unanimous. Sep 19 $351.31 +0.469% open $353.67 high $354.5 low $351.27 prev $349.67. Finnhub live Sep 19. 5-day -1.38% 1-month -0.08% 6-month +22.6% YTD +9.03%. XLF $55.84 -0.035% weak but JPM outperforming. Most recent close Sep 19 used, rate beneficiary to beat SPY $761.69.
MSFT
Microsoft oversold bounce Sep 19 $493.815 +0.007% open $494.945 high $497.39 low $491.5 prev $493.78. Finnhub live Sep 19. 5-day -0.37% 1-month +2.19% 6-month +29.31% YTD +2.11%. Sep 18 $491.54 open $497.965 high $498.65 low $491.1 -1.25% intraday washout now stabilizing. Cloud AI leader defensive megacap vs SPY -0.3% weekly. Most recent close Sep 19 used.
AAPL
Apple stable Sep 19 $336.68 +0.16% open $335.28 high $338.22 low $333.05 prev $336.13 +0.55. Finnhub live Sep 19. 5-day +1.33% 1-month +8.83% 6-month +35.76% YTD +23.84% 1-year +37.14% beta 1.08. $4.9T cap close $336.13 per FinanceCharts Sep 19. Less volatile than semis, benefits from iPhone cycle into year-end. Most recent close Sep 19 used to beat SPY $761.69 flat.
Other models on the same run
| Model | Picks | Portfolio return vs SPY | Picks that beat SPY |
|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 Sol | AMD, INTC, META, SMCI, GLW | +0.23% | 20% |
| Claude Opus 5 | SMH, NVDA, ICHR, QQQ, IWM | +0.76% | 80% |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | NVDA, GOOG, AAPL, SOXL, MSFT | +1.73% | 100% |
| Grok 4.5 | INTC, AMD, ARM, SOXX, NVDA | +1.15% | 60% |
| DeepSeek V3 | AMD, INTC, ARM, MSTR, COIN | -0.04% | 40% |
Written up on ForecastNest Insights: Stock Selection: Muse Spark 1.1's picks for 2026-09-21.
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