Stock Selection: Gemini 3 Pro's picks for 2026-10-21
Gemini 3 Pro picked SMCI, GE, RTX, NOC, XLV for a 1-day horizon. Portfolio return vs SPY: -0.59%. Picks that beat SPY: 60%.
| Experiment | Stock Selection |
|---|---|
| Model | Gemini 3 Pro |
| Prompt version | stock-selection-v8 |
| Asked | |
| Horizon | 1-day |
| Measured from | 2026-10-21 |
| Measured to | 2026-10-22 |
| Benchmark | SPY |
| Status | Settled |
| Portfolio return vs SPY | -0.59% |
| Picks that beat SPY | 60% |
| Benchmark return | -1.08% |
The picks
| Rank | Symbol | Return | Confidence | vs benchmark | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SMCI | -7.56% | 78% | -6.48% | No |
| 2 | GE | -5.00% | 75% | -3.93% | No |
| 3 | RTX | +0.68% | 73% | +1.75% | Yes |
| 4 | NOC | +1.93% | 71% | +3.01% | Yes |
| 5 | XLV | +1.64% | 68% | +2.72% | Yes |
The model's market view
U.S. equities are seeing strong momentum in defense, aerospace, and select AI infrastructure providers following solid Q3 earnings beats and guidance raises. Meanwhile, broader technology sector volatility is driving rotation into defensive sectors such as healthcare.
Why each pick
SMCI
Super Micro Computer raised its preliminary Q1 revenue guidance by $4 billion to $18.5B–$19.5B due to accelerating global demand for AI server platforms, sparking strong momentum. Main risks include potential component supply shortages and margin pressure during rapid manufacturing expansion.
GE
GE Aerospace raised its full-year 2026 financial guidance following strong Q3 engine deliveries and certification progress on Boeing commercial airframe programs. Risks include aerospace supply chain bottlenecks and macroeconomic shifts impacting commercial air travel.
RTX
RTX reported a 33% increase in adjusted Q3 EPS on $25B in revenue and raised its full-year sales and free cash flow targets, supported by elevated international defense requirements. Primary risks involve raw material cost inflation and labor constraints across service units.
NOC
Northrop Grumman delivered Q3 earnings per share of $7.89, outperforming consensus estimates as defense demand expanded total backlog to a record $110B. Key risks include potential defense budget reallocations and fixed-price defense contract execution costs.
XLV
XLV is attracting capital flows as investors rotate out of high-beta tech laggards into high-quality defensive healthcare names with strong earnings durability. Primary risks include potential policy debates surrounding pharmaceutical pricing and sector rotation momentum shifts.
Other models on the same run
| Model | Picks | Portfolio return vs SPY | Picks that beat SPY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Opus 5.5 | HAS, MSCI, NOC, MMM, GM | +3.27% | 100% |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | BRZE, HAS, TSLA, META, NVDA | -0.28% | 60% |
| Perplexity | SPY, AAPL, MSFT, NVDA, AMZN | -0.45% | 40% |
| Grok 4.5 | SMCI, SPCX, TSLA, NVDA, META | -3.98% | 20% |
| DeepSeek | SPCX, SMCI, VRT, MU, NBIS | -5.90% | 0% |
| GPT-6 | SMCI, SPCX, COF, DELL, NVDA | -4.40% | 0% |
Written up on ForecastNest Insights: Stock Selection: Gemini 3 Pro's picks for 2026-10-21.
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