Stock Selection: Muse Spark 1.1's picks for 2026-09-10
Muse Spark 1.1 picked ORCL, ADBE, AVAV, SNDK, CEG for a 1-day horizon. Portfolio return vs SPY: -3.13%. Picks that beat SPY: 0%.
| Experiment | Stock Selection |
|---|---|
| Model | Muse Spark 1.1 |
| Prompt version | stock-selection-v6 |
| Asked | |
| Horizon | 1-day |
| Measured from | 2026-09-10 |
| Measured to | 2026-09-11 |
| Benchmark | SPY |
| Status | Settled |
| Portfolio return vs SPY | -3.13% |
| Picks that beat SPY | 0% |
| Benchmark return | +1.17% |
The picks
| Rank | Symbol | Return | Confidence | vs benchmark | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ORCL | -0.32% | 80% | -1.49% | No |
| 2 | ADBE | -1.74% | 72% | -2.91% | No |
| 3 | AVAV | -4.16% | 70% | -5.33% | No |
| 4 | SNDK | -3.81% | 68% | -4.98% | No |
| 5 | CEG | +0.26% | 66% | -0.91% | No |
The model's market view
Window opened Sep 10 14:01 UTC already in session Sep 10, ends Sep 11 14:01 UTC capturing Sep 10 close and after-hours earnings plus Sep 11 open. Key catalysts inside window: ORCL Q1 FY27 after close Sep 10 with $638B RPO backlog and 58-64% OCI growth guide, consensus $1.74 EPS $19.13B, and ADBE Q3 FY26 after close Sep 10. Both officially scheduled. Source closes Sep 9: ORCL $161.63 -0.55% 5-day +8.39%, ADBE $254.86 -0.93% 5-day -12.95%, AVAV $140.80 -5.36% after Q1 print Sep 9 after close, SNDK $1737.99 and CEG $299.05. Expect earnings beats to drive after-hours outperformance vs SPY for ORCL and ADBE, plus rebound in oversold AVAV and momentum in AI infra SNDK and power CEG.
Why each pick
ORCL
ORCL reports Q1 FY27 after close Sep 10 inside window - officially scheduled Sep 2 PRNewswire, consensus $1.74 $19.13B vs prior beat $2.11 vs $1.96, RPO $638B and OCI 58-64% growth guide per TradingView preview. Stock $161.63 Sep 9 close -0.55% but +8.39% 5-day, down 55% from ATH $324.63 Sep 2025, Mizuho Outperform $320. Window includes after-hours reaction until Sep 11 14:01, high chance to outperform SPY if backlog beats. Risks: high bar $19.1B, guidance risk.
ADBE
ADBE reports Q3 FY26 after close Sep 10 inside window, announced Aug 31 Business Wire call 2-3pm PT, consensus ~$4.70 EPS. Closed $254.86 Sep 9 -0.93% 5-day -12.95% YTD -27.18% down 26% into earnings per Motley Fool, market cap $101B, 52-week low $190.12 high $370.86. Oversold into print with Firefly AI monetization catalyst. Window captures after-hours gap if beat. Risks: AI threat to creative tools, churn concerns, but risk/reward favors outperformance vs SPY after washout.
AVAV
AVAV reported Q1 FY27 after close Sep 9, consensus $0.30 $459.9M muted growth, closed $140.80 -5.36% from $148.78 Sep 9, YTD -41.79% from ATH $409.83 Oct 2025, market cap $7.35B. Defense drone demand and Ukraine contracts substantive. Oversold pre-print, Sep 10 session reaction inside window likely reversal up to outperform SPY if operational insights positive. Risks: continued defense budget uncertainty, -38% 6-month.
SNDK
SanDisk $1737.99 Sep 8 close -0.12% but 5-day +17.04% 1-month +43.37% 1-year +2365% from $27.89 Apr 2025, beta 3.86 high $1807 intraday. Memory upcycle AI storage demand, sympathy with ORCL OCI growth. Window includes Sep 10 regular session momentum and potential sympathy after ORCL beat. Likely outperforms SPY on AI infra bid. Risks: parabolic valuation, insider sale $1767, volatile.
CEG
Constellation Energy $299.05 Sep 8 +0.11% 5-day +8.06% market cap $105.92B, utilities only green Sep 4, nuclear power AI data center demand, IRA tailwinds. Defensive with AI kicker outperforms SPY in volatile earnings window. Benefits if yields dip after ORCL/ADBE. Risks: rate sensitivity, YTD -15% from ATH $401.70.
Other models on the same run
| Model | Picks | Portfolio return vs SPY | Picks that beat SPY |
|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 Sol | AVAV, XLE, AAPL, META, ORCL | -0.68% | 40% |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | AVAV, IOT, DOCU, META, SRE | -1.48% | 40% |
| Grok 4.5 | XLE, XOM, CVX, META, NET | -0.16% | 40% |
| Gemini 3 Pro | AVAV, META, AAPL, SNPS, NBIS | -0.88% | 40% |
| Claude Opus 5 | XLE, CC, AVAV, FOXA, SSNC | -1.47% | 20% |
| Kimi | GLD, USO, CULP, XLE, VLO | -0.70% | 20% |
Written up on ForecastNest Insights: Stock Selection: Muse Spark 1.1's picks for 2026-09-10.
ForecastNest provides AI-generated market analysis and quantitative research for informational and educational purposes only. Nothing here constitutes financial, investment, legal, or tax advice.