Stock Selection: Grok 4.5's picks for 2026-09-14
Grok 4.5 picked DELL, HPE, SMCI, NVDA, AVGO for a 7-day horizon. Portfolio return vs SPY: -0.35%. Picks that beat SPY: 40%.
| Experiment | Stock Selection |
|---|---|
| Model | Grok 4.5 |
| Prompt version | stock-selection-v7 |
| Asked | |
| Horizon | 7-day |
| Measured from | 2026-09-11 |
| Measured to | 2026-09-22 |
| Benchmark | SPY |
| Status | Settled |
| Portfolio return vs SPY | -0.35% |
| Picks that beat SPY | 40% |
| Benchmark return | +1.20% |
The picks
| Rank | Symbol | Return | Confidence | vs benchmark | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DELL | -3.20% | 68% | -4.40% | No |
| 2 | HPE | -1.71% | 64% | -2.90% | No |
| 3 | SMCI | +3.59% | 60% | +2.39% | Yes |
| 4 | NVDA | +4.85% | 58% | +3.65% | Yes |
| 5 | AVGO | +0.70% | 55% | -0.49% | No |
The model's market view
Markets rebounded on Sep 11 despite hotter-than-expected core CPI that solidified near-90% odds of a Fed rate hike on Sep 16. Leadership concentrated in AI infrastructure hardware and semiconductors on the back of Oracle capex guidance and strong AI server backlogs, while energy remains supported by elevated oil prices from ongoing Middle East supply disruptions. Near-term risk is a hawkish FOMC outcome or yield spike pressuring growth assets, but secular AI demand and supply constraints provide relative resilience versus the broader SPY.
Why each pick
DELL
Dell sits at the center of the AI server build-out with a reported ~$95 billion AI server backlog and recent order conversion strength. Oracle’s elevated 2026 capex guidance and an Outperform initiation with a high price target from RBC Capital on Sep 11 drove an 11-12% single-day surge, confirming institutional sponsorship. Over a short 7-session window the stock can continue to outperform SPY on residual momentum and any further positive AI-infrastructure commentary. Primary risks are a sharp post-FOMC risk-off move that hits high-beta hardware names or any sign that memory/supply constraints are easing faster than expected.
HPE
Hewlett Packard Enterprise is a direct beneficiary of the same AI data-center spend that lifted Dell, with additional exposure to networking equipment used in large-scale deployments (including recent Oracle collaboration). The stock also jumped more than 12% on Sep 11 alongside the broader AI-hardware rally and has raised fiscal guidance. Relative to SPY it offers leveraged upside to continued AI infrastructure orders while trading at a more moderate valuation than pure-play chip names. Risks include profit-taking after the sharp one-day move and sensitivity to any hawkish Fed messaging that raises the cost of capital for enterprise IT budgets.
SMCI
Super Micro Computer remains a high-beta pure-play on AI server racks and liquid-cooling systems. It participated in the Sep 11 hardware rally and continues to benefit from the multi-year AI build-out narrative that has proven resilient even when broader tech is mixed. Over seven sessions the stock’s elevated beta can produce outperformance versus SPY if AI sentiment stays constructive. Key risks are its higher volatility, potential inventory or customer-concentration headlines, and amplified downside if the FOMC decision triggers a broad growth-stock sell-off.
NVDA
Nvidia remains the foundational GPU supplier for AI training and inference clusters. Despite already-large market capitalization, the stock tends to lead or stabilize AI-related rallies and benefits from any confirmation of sustained hyperscaler and enterprise demand. In a short window it can outperform SPY on relative strength within the technology complex if risk appetite holds after the Fed meeting. Risks center on valuation sensitivity to higher rates, any incremental export-control headlines, or a broader de-risking of mega-cap growth.
AVGO
Broadcom provides custom AI accelerators and networking silicon that have become core to hyperscaler roadmaps; management has guided for substantial AI revenue growth into 2027-2028. The stock offers a somewhat less volatile way to express the AI theme compared with pure server assemblers while still carrying meaningful upside to continued infrastructure spending. Relative to SPY it should benefit from any residual AI momentum in the coming sessions. Primary risks are its own premium valuation and the possibility that a hawkish Fed outcome compresses multiples across the semiconductor complex.
Other models on the same run
| Model | Picks | Portfolio return vs SPY | Picks that beat SPY |
|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-6 | DELL, AAPL, XLE, ANET, HPE | -2.19% | 40% |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | CVX, XOM, VLO, JPM, UNH | -5.07% | 0% |
| DeepSeek V3 | BE, META, DELL, T, PLTR | +2.35% | 40% |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | NVDA, MSFT, AMZN, GOOGL, AAPL | +0.93% | 60% |
| Claude Opus 5 | VLO, XLE, INSW, ITA, XLV | -2.77% | 20% |
Written up on ForecastNest Insights: Stock Selection: Grok 4.5's picks for 2026-09-14.
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