Stock Selection: Grok 4.5's picks for 2026-10-12
Grok 4.5 picked XLE, XOM, CRM, DHT, JPM for a 1-day horizon. Portfolio return vs SPY: +1.16%. Picks that beat SPY: 80%.
| Experiment | Stock Selection |
|---|---|
| Model | Grok 4.5 |
| Prompt version | stock-selection-v8 |
| Asked | |
| Horizon | 1-day |
| Measured from | 2026-10-12 |
| Measured to | 2026-10-13 |
| Benchmark | SPY |
| Status | Settled |
| Portfolio return vs SPY | +1.16% |
| Picks that beat SPY | 80% |
| Benchmark return | -0.06% |
The picks
| Rank | Symbol | Return | Confidence | vs benchmark | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | XLE | +0.66% | 68% | +0.72% | Yes |
| 2 | XOM | +0.67% | 65% | +0.73% | Yes |
| 3 | CRM | +3.27% | 62% | +3.33% | Yes |
| 4 | DHT | +1.28% | 60% | +1.34% | Yes |
| 5 | JPM | -0.35% | 55% | -0.29% | No |
The model's market view
Markets open mixed to slightly higher on Columbus Day with bonds closed; oil prices jump on Houthi attacks and Middle East supply risks while bank earnings kick off tomorrow and CPI looms mid-week. Energy and selective software names show relative strength versus a flat SPY, favoring short-term outperformance in oil-linked and upgrade-driven stocks.
Why each pick
XLE
Energy Select Sector SPDR benefits directly from the overnight and intraday rise in Brent and WTI crude driven by Houthi strikes on Riyadh airport and broader Middle East supply concerns; already up roughly 1.7-1.8% while SPY is near flat, positioning it for continued relative strength over the remaining session into the 1-day window. Risks include any sudden de-escalation comments from Trump or profit-taking if oil stalls.
XOM
ExxonMobil tracks the oil price spike and energy sector momentum; shares are higher by about 1.7% on the session as crude holds elevated levels, giving it a clear edge versus SPY's muted action. Thesis rests on continued geopolitical premium in oil supporting integrated majors through the close and next session. Risks are a rapid oil reversal or broader risk-off move if inflation data fears intensify.
CRM
Salesforce received a double upgrade to Buy from Underperform by BofA with a sharply higher $285 target, citing improved AI monetization trends and reduced disintermediation risk; shares are up approximately 2.8-3% intraday on the catalyst while the broader market is flat. This provides immediate positive momentum likely to persist into the 1-day horizon. Risks include fading of the upgrade reaction or sector rotation away from software.
DHT
DHT Holdings, a tanker operator, is among the top gainers today with roughly 7% advance as higher oil prices and potential shipping rate support from Middle East tensions boost tanker equities. Relative strength versus SPY is already pronounced and likely to carry through the session. Risks are high volatility typical of tankers and any oil price pullback.
JPM
JPMorgan trades modestly higher ahead of its Q3 earnings report tomorrow, with the market expecting solid trading and banking results to kick off the season; financials can outperform on a quiet holiday session with limited competing news. Positioned for positive drift into the report window. Risks include a miss or cautious guidance that could reverse gains overnight.
Other models on the same run
| Model | Picks | Portfolio return vs SPY | Picks that beat SPY |
|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-6 | FSLR, CRM, CCC, CVX, IREN | -0.42% | 60% |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | CRM, FSLR, AMZN, MSFT, TSLA | +0.72% | 60% |
| Gemini 3 Pro | NVDA, MSFT, QQQ, AAPL, AMZN | +0.71% | 80% |
| Perplexity | CCI, MRNA, HUM, NVAX, FSLY | -0.84% | 40% |
| Claude Sonnet 5.5 | XOM, JPM, NVDA, CVX, XLU | +0.28% | 60% |
| DeepSeek | IREN, CCC, CRM, BIIB, FSLR | -1.00% | 40% |
Written up on ForecastNest Insights: Stock Selection: Grok 4.5's picks for 2026-10-12.
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