Stock Selection: Grok 4.5's picks for 2026-09-14
Grok 4.5 picked CRWD, PANW, CVX, CRM, XLE for a 1-day horizon. Portfolio return vs SPY: +1.39%. Picks that beat SPY: 60%.
| Experiment | Stock Selection |
|---|---|
| Model | Grok 4.5 |
| Prompt version | stock-selection-v7 |
| Asked | |
| Horizon | 1-day |
| Measured from | 2026-09-14 |
| Measured to | 2026-09-15 |
| Benchmark | SPY |
| Status | Settled |
| Portfolio return vs SPY | +1.39% |
| Picks that beat SPY | 60% |
| Benchmark return | -0.36% |
The picks
| Rank | Symbol | Return | Confidence | vs benchmark | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CRWD | +2.33% | 62% | +2.69% | Yes |
| 2 | PANW | +2.48% | 60% | +2.83% | Yes |
| 3 | CVX | -0.44% | 58% | -0.08% | No |
| 4 | CRM | +1.49% | 55% | +1.85% | Yes |
| 5 | XLE | -0.68% | 53% | -0.32% | No |
The model's market view
US equities opened lower on Monday with Nasdaq and S&P futures pressured by AI-sector jitters after Anthropic and OpenAI executives called for slower AI development, plus rising oil prices and elevated Fed hike odds ahead of the September 16 FOMC decision. Semiconductor and AI-hardware names are weak while cybersecurity, software, and energy show relative strength. SPY is trading lower in the session; the short 1-day window favors names already displaying intraday resilience or direct benefit from higher oil.
Why each pick
CRWD
CrowdStrike is outperforming in premarket and early trade as cybersecurity names benefit from heightened focus on AI-related security risks following weekend commentary from Anthropic and OpenAI. Relative strength versus the broader tech complex and SPY is already visible. Primary risk is a broad risk-off cascade if the AI sell-off deepens or if yields spike further ahead of the Fed.
PANW
Palo Alto Networks is similarly bid on the AI-security theme and has shown early-session gains while semiconductor and hardware peers decline. It offers a liquid way to capture defensive tech rotation within the 1-day window. Risk is profit-taking or correlation with the wider market if SPY accelerates lower.
CVX
Chevron benefits directly from the sharp rise in oil prices (WTI and Brent both higher on geopolitical supply concerns). Energy is one of the few sectors showing positive relative performance while the broad market is under pressure. Risk is a sudden reversal in crude if risk sentiment stabilizes or if equities stage a broad rebound.
CRM
Salesforce has posted notable gains amid the software relative strength that is offsetting some of the AI-hardware weakness. It provides exposure to enterprise software demand that is less directly tied to the semiconductor sell-off. Risk is that any intensification of the broader tech sell-off pulls software names lower as well.
XLE
The Energy Select Sector SPDR offers diversified exposure to the oil-price tailwind that is supporting energy stocks while SPY is lower. It is a liquid vehicle for capturing the sector’s relative outperformance on the day. Risk is a sharp drop in crude prices or a broad equity rebound that reduces the relative edge.
Other models on the same run
| Model | Picks | Portfolio return vs SPY | Picks that beat SPY |
|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-6 | XLE, XLP, XLV, RSP, SGOV | -0.11% | 40% |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | XLE, XOM, CVX, BP, VLO | -0.29% | 40% |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | USO, XLE, CRWD, LMT, VLO | +0.10% | 40% |
| Claude Opus 5 | XLE, XOP, RSP, ITA, XLV | -0.37% | 20% |
| DeepSeek V3 | ELMT, RUM, SRRK, CRWD, NOW | -4.53% | 40% |
Written up on ForecastNest Insights: Stock Selection: Grok 4.5's picks for 2026-09-14.
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