Stock Selection: DeepSeek's picks for 2026-10-20
DeepSeek picked HAS, MMM, EFX, NOC, LLY for a 1-day horizon. Portfolio return vs SPY: +0.46%. Picks that beat SPY: 40%.
| Experiment | Stock Selection |
|---|---|
| Model | DeepSeek |
| Prompt version | stock-selection-v8 |
| Asked | |
| Horizon | 1-day |
| Measured from | 2026-10-20 |
| Measured to | 2026-10-21 |
| Benchmark | SPY |
| Status | Settled |
| Portfolio return vs SPY | +0.46% |
| Picks that beat SPY | 40% |
| Benchmark return | -0.15% |
The picks
| Rank | Symbol | Return | Confidence | vs benchmark | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HAS | +5.70% | 72% | +5.85% | Yes |
| 2 | MMM | -1.00% | 70% | -0.85% | No |
| 3 | EFX | +0.11% | 68% | +0.26% | Yes |
| 4 | NOC | -1.03% | 66% | -0.88% | No |
| 5 | LLY | -2.26% | 62% | -2.11% | No |
The model's market view
SPY is up about 0.7% intraday near $771.5, but the advance is narrow: fresh earnings winners in industrials, defense, consumer discretionary and healthcare are leading, while AI/semiconductors and energy lag despite WTI above $103 and the 10-year yield near 5.14%. With mega-cap technology vulnerable to rate pressure, a basket of companies that just delivered clear beats and raised guidance should outpace the cap-weighted index over the next session. The main risk is a broad risk-off reversal or profit-taking in the day's biggest gainers.
Why each pick
HAS
Hasbro posted Q3 adjusted EPS of $2.90 versus the $1.86 consensus, revenue rose 15% to $1.595 billion, Magic: The Gathering revenue topped $600 million for the first time, and management raised full-year guidance while doubling its buyback target. The stock is up about 6.1% in a live intraday quote as of 10:58 AM ET, and the size of the beat plus the raised outlook supports post-earnings drift into the next session. Consumer discretionary is also one of today's leading sectors. Risks include holiday-season toy demand, tariff and input-cost pressure, and the possibility that the one-day re-rating invites profit-taking after a 30% year-to-date gain. Price is an intraday Yahoo Finance quote, not a close.
MMM
3M beat Q3 adjusted EPS at $2.50 versus $2.38 and raised full-year EPS guidance to $9.10-$9.15, well above the $8.93 consensus, while also expanding its data-center supply relationship with Amazon. The stock is up about 6.3% intraday as of 10:57 AM ET and is breaking toward the upper end of its 52-week range. The combination of an earnings beat, a guidance raise and a new Amazon-linked growth narrative is a strong same-day catalyst that can carry into the next session. Risks include dilution from Amazon's warrants for 3.2 million shares, only modest organic growth, industrial macro softness, and the fact that the stock has already reacted strongly. Price is an intraday Yahoo Finance quote.
EFX
Equifax reported Q3 adjusted EPS of $2.26 versus the $2.20 consensus, revenue rose 10% to $1.693 billion and net income jumped 32%, sending the stock up about 10.1% intraday as of 10:43 AM ET. The shares had been down roughly 18% year-to-date and were trading well below their 52-week high, so the beat triggered a sharp re-rating and possible short covering. Strong momentum and an oversold starting point support further post-earnings drift over the next session. Risks include the modest $0.06 EPS beat, revenue merely in line, sensitivity to mortgage and credit cycles, and the potential for profit-taking after a double-digit one-day move; beta is 1.34. Price is an intraday Yahoo Finance quote.
NOC
Northrop Grumman beat Q3 EPS at $7.89 versus the $7.18 consensus and raised its fiscal 2026 earnings outlook to $29.35-$29.75 from $28.60-$29.10, reinforcing the defense demand narrative. The stock is up about 6.0% intraday as of 10:58 AM ET and is one of the strongest large-cap defense movers today. The guidance raise, rather than the revenue line, is the key driver and should support follow-through into the next session. Risks include revenue slightly below consensus at $11.12 billion, fixed-price program execution risk, defense budget and political uncertainty, and the fact that defense has already been a crowded trade. Price is an intraday Yahoo Finance quote.
LLY
Eli Lilly is up about 4.6% intraday at $1,297.71 and has broken to a new all-time high after positive Phase 3 results for Omvoh in pediatric ulcerative colitis, with healthcare leading today's sector performance. The stock's record-high breakout, analyst target increases and the broader rotation into defensive healthcare growth support continued momentum into the next session. Risks include a valuation near 43x trailing earnings, a low beta of 0.45 that can limit index-relative upside, the catalyst being pipeline news rather than an earnings beat, and the possibility of resistance after a record-high run; Q3 earnings are due October 29, outside this window. Price is an intraday Yahoo Finance quote.
Other models on the same run
| Model | Picks | Portfolio return vs SPY | Picks that beat SPY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Sonnet 5.5 | COF, ISRG, NFLX, RSP, XLE | -0.63% | 60% |
| GPT-6 | SOXL, MMM, ISRG, NOC, RTX | -1.18% | 0% |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | NVDA, TSM, AVGO, MSFT, AAPL | +0.14% | 60% |
| Perplexity | LLY, MMM, NOC, WDC, MU | -0.16% | 20% |
| Gemini 3 Pro | XOM, CVX, MMM, RTX, AMZN | +0.16% | 40% |
| Grok 4.5 | BRZE, EFX, NOC, HAL, XLE | +0.75% | 80% |
Written up on ForecastNest Insights: Stock Selection: DeepSeek's picks for 2026-10-20.
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