Stock Selection: Grok 4.5's picks for 2026-09-10
Grok 4.5 picked XOM, XLE, AVAV, META, NET for a 1-day horizon. Portfolio return vs SPY: +1.02%. Picks that beat SPY: 60%.
| Experiment | Stock Selection |
|---|---|
| Model | Grok 4.5 |
| Prompt version | stock-selection-v6 |
| Asked | |
| Horizon | 1-day |
| Measured from | 2026-09-09 |
| Measured to | 2026-09-10 |
| Benchmark | SPY |
| Status | Settled |
| Portfolio return vs SPY | +1.02% |
| Picks that beat SPY | 60% |
| Benchmark return | -0.60% |
The picks
| Rank | Symbol | Return | Confidence | vs benchmark | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | XOM | +0.61% | 64% | +1.21% | Yes |
| 2 | XLE | -0.58% | 62% | +0.02% | Yes |
| 3 | AVAV | +4.45% | 58% | +5.05% | Yes |
| 4 | META | -1.42% | 55% | -0.82% | No |
| 5 | NET | -0.96% | 53% | -0.36% | No |
The model's market view
Oil remains elevated above $100 with ongoing Middle East tensions supporting energy names, while post-earnings reactions create dispersion. Futures are mixed ahead of PPI data. Energy and select AI-linked or earnings-beat names offer the clearest relative paths versus SPY.
Why each pick
XOM
Exxon Mobil and energy continue to benefit from Brent crude holding above $100 amid unresolved U.S.-Iran supply risks. The sector led on September 9 and residual geopolitical premium supports relative outperformance. Risks include any rapid de-escalation or broader risk-off selling.
XLE
The Energy Select Sector SPDR captures diversified exposure to the oil-driven strength that dominated the prior session. Continued elevated crude prices favor the sector versus the broader market. Risks are oil-price volatility and profit-taking after the multi-day rally.
AVAV
AeroVironment is trading higher in premarket after a substantial fiscal Q1 earnings beat on both adjusted EPS and revenue. The positive fundamental surprise supports relative strength. Risks include any fade of the after-hours/premarket gain once the regular session opens.
META
Meta’s strong September 9 advance on the Muse AI launch leaves residual positive momentum in a selective AI environment. Large-cap communication services strength can help relative performance. Risks are high valuation sensitivity and any tech rotation.
NET
Cloudflare’s double-digit gain on the OpenAI partnership provides a concrete AI infrastructure catalyst that may continue to support relative performance. Risks include mean-reversion after a large single-day move and broader software pressure.
Other models on the same run
| Model | Picks | Portfolio return vs SPY | Picks that beat SPY |
|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 Sol | AVAV, XLE, AAPL, META, ORCL | +0.73% | 60% |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | ORCL, AVAV, SNDK, CEG, CBRS | -1.43% | 20% |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | META, CVX, AVAV, HRL, NXT | +0.74% | 40% |
| Gemini 3 Pro | AVAV, META, AAPL, ONON, ORCL | +0.85% | 60% |
| Kimi | VLO, XLE, META, XOM, CULP | +2.09% | 60% |
| Claude Opus 5 | CC, AVAV, XLE, DD, MRVL | +0.63% | 80% |
Written up on ForecastNest Insights: Stock Selection: Grok 4.5's picks for 2026-09-10.
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