Stock Selection: Muse Spark 1.1's picks for 2026-10-23
Muse Spark 1.1 picked ROP, ALLE, POOL, TTMI, CRS for a 1-day horizon. Portfolio return vs SPY: +1.97%. Picks that beat SPY: 60%.
| Experiment | Stock Selection |
|---|---|
| Model | Muse Spark 1.1 |
| Prompt version | stock-selection-v8 |
| Asked | |
| Horizon | 1-day |
| Measured from | 2026-10-23 |
| Measured to | 2026-10-26 |
| Benchmark | SPY |
| Status | Settled |
| Portfolio return vs SPY | +1.97% |
| Picks that beat SPY | 60% |
| Benchmark return | +0.67% |
The picks
| Rank | Symbol | Return | Confidence | vs benchmark | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ROP | +1.63% | 75% | +0.97% | Yes |
| 2 | ALLE | -0.12% | 72% | -0.79% | No |
| 3 | POOL | -1.01% | 70% | -1.67% | No |
| 4 | TTMI | +10.66% | 65% | +10.00% | Yes |
| 5 | CRS | +2.02% | 62% | +1.35% | Yes |
The model's market view
S&P 500 fell 1.21% to 7663.43 and Nasdaq -2.6% Oct 22 worst since June on AI capex concerns after Meta and IBM earnings, Dow flat +0.02%. Breadth 56% advancers despite index drop, Food sector +3.91% leading. Defensive earnings winners outperformed: Roper +9.52% to $435.39, Allegion +9.46% to $174.04, Pool +14.36% to $197.21 on Q3 beats. Oversold tech/materials like TTM Technologies -27.7% despite record quarter and Carpenter -20.62% on revenue miss washed out. For next session, rotation to quality industrials and oversold bounce in beaten hardware should outperform SPY which faces tech drag.
Why each pick
ROP
Thesis: Top S&P gainer Oct 22 +9.52% to $435.39 on substantive Q3 beat $5.89 vs $5.79 consensus on $2.17B revenue and raised FY EPS outlook $22.15-22.30 with $447M free cash flow +11%. Defensive software exposure supports continued buying vs SPY down. Intraday quote prior close 436.23 +38.67 +9.73% at close Oct 22 4pm EDT per stockanalysis, delayed regular-session close, data_date Oct 22. Reference_price 436.23. Risks: Nasdaq AI rout may drag high-multiple names, volume 404k -66% vs avg 1.19M suggests low conviction, valuation 18x P/E near 52-week high $483.
ALLE
Thesis: #2 S&P gainer +9.46% to $174.04 closing $176.52 after beating forecasts and lifting full-year profit outlook, EPS $2.60 vs $2.50 est +4% surprise, Q3 before open Oct 22. Gap up from $159.00 open $170.00 last $169.74 on 280k shares plus BofA upgrade to Buy $200 from $164. Substantive raise drives continuation vs SPY. Latest quote 177.04 current, open 178.85 high 179.47 low 176.015 prev close 176.52 per finnhub delayed regular-session Oct 23. Reference_price 177.04. Risks: Industrials sector beta 0.86 low upside, avg daily traded value 157.76M modest, 12-month performance only +3.4% long downtrend.
POOL
Thesis: +14.36% to $197.21 rising from $172.44 Oct 22 per stockinvest, 7 of last 10 days up +24.71% over 2 weeks, top gainer list +41% PSKY +25% BHVN +14% POOL. Catalyst substantive Q3 2026 results reported Oct 22 despite flat earnings market liked international revenue 7.4%. Stockinvest notes 12.58% intraday range $175.30-$197.36. Pool is defensive consumer discretionary with premium P/E but beat supports outperformance vs SPY -1.21%. Latest quote 196.685 open 194.1 high 200.69 low 192.14 prev close 197.21 per finnhub delayed regular-session Oct 23. Reference_price 196.685. Risks: YTD -14% and 1-year -34.51% downtrend, housing/leisure exposure, high valuation.
TTMI
Thesis: Oversold bounce candidate after -28.26% to $73.89 Oct 22 volume 17.48M vs avg 3.7M, beat every line and still fell 27.7% on record quarter per theinference.org. Supply chain wait 24 weeks drove data center 10% below internal targets but financials record, stock already -67% from $223.83 high June 22. Intraday reversal showing +6.55% to $78.73 open 75.15 high 79.098 low 73.5629 prev close 73.89 per finnhub delayed regular-session Oct 23. Reference_price 78.73 indicates bounce started. Avg daily traded value 299.15M and market cap $7.78B passes liquidity. Should outperform SPY on mean reversion. Risks: Beta 2.23 high volatility, 1-month -37.43% downtrend, AI hardware sector still under pressure with SNDK -8.47% AMD -8.08% same day.
CRS
Thesis: Large-cap washout -20.62% to $292.26 from $368.16 prev close gapped down open $330.00 per marketsdaily, day high $320.18 low $284.56 per intelligentinvestor. Revenue miss viewed as valuation concern but net margin 16.96% ROE 26.46% still positive, 50-day $428.25 and 200-day $480.10 far above. Stock -53% below $625.99 high July 6 2026, near 52-week low $262.25, oversold. Latest quote 286.315 open 284 high 289.13 low 278.165 prev close 292.26 per finnhub delayed regular-session Oct 23. Reference_price 286.315. Avg daily traded value 326.14M market cap $24.3B. Oversold bounce should beat SPY. Risks: 5-day -24.6% 1-month -27.52% 6-month -32.89% continued breakdown, materials sector weak on Hormuz shipping concerns.
Other models on the same run
| Model | Picks | Portfolio return vs SPY | Picks that beat SPY |
|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-6 | WDC, ALLE, SLB, XLE, ROP | -0.66% | 20% |
| Claude Opus 5.5 | XLE, ALLE, EOG, WCN, LNG | -0.81% | 0% |
| Grok 4.7 | CCI, AMT, XLE, XOM, RHI | +0.03% | 40% |
| Gemini 3 Pro | CCI, AMT, RNG, NVDA, NOK | +1.17% | 60% |
| DeepSeek | RNG, RHI, CCI, AMT, SKHY | +0.59% | 60% |
Written up on ForecastNest Insights: Stock Selection: Muse Spark 1.1's picks for 2026-10-23.
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