NVDA 1-day forecast by Grok 4
Grok 4's 1-day forecast for NVDA, made 2026-10-15: expected range $212.00 to $221.00 at 42% confidence. Settled at $215.39: direction called correctly, score 79.6.
| Asset | NVDA |
|---|---|
| Model | Grok 4 |
| Recorded by | Forecastnest |
| Forecast made | |
| Horizon | 1-day (Equity / ETF 1D: the stored target below is authoritative; it may be a session close or an intraday instant.) |
| Window closes | |
| Price when asked | $217.28 |
| Price the model reported | $217.35 |
| Expected range | $212.00 to $221.00 |
| Confidence | 42% |
| Prompt style | No data |
| Status | Settled |
| Actual close | $215.39 |
| Traded range in the window | $215.07 to $218.68 |
| Result | Direction called correctly |
| Score | 79.6 of 100 |
The model's reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: Live quote of $217.35 at approximately 13:20 EDT on 2026-10-15 from stockanalysis.com (NASDAQ regular session, open 215.30, day range 212.85-218.05, volume ~77.8M partial). Prior close 221.30 on 2026-10-14. Sources: https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/nvda/, MarketWatch download data, TECHi historical, TradeSmith. Daily OHLCV (last five completed sessions, oldest to newest, split-adjusted, share volume, NASDAQ, US/Eastern session): 2026-10-08 O234.92 H237.07 L229.85 C230.48 V118697398; 2026-10-09 O233.84 H233.92 L229.11 C229.28 V84645562; 2026-10-12 O228.73 H228.86 L224.90 C226.32 V70690250; 2026-10-13 O224.34 H228.64 L223.06 C228.52 V84036945; 2026-10-14 O225.53 H226.00 L219.64 C221.30 V118730094. return_5d_pct ≈ -6.81 (221.30 / 237.47 - 1). high_20d 243.37, low_20d ≈208.93, avg_volume_20d ≈110M shares (from YCharts 30d ~109M and session averages).
(2) The current market regime as you read it: Short-term downtrend within a still-elevated longer-term uptrend. Price has pulled back from the 243.37 52-week high set 2026-10-06, with consecutive lower highs and closes near session lows on down days. Volume on the 2026-10-14 drop was near average; today's partial volume is tracking lower so far. Regime is risk-off for AI-related names amid rising-yield and financing concerns.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Anchored to the live $217.35 quote. Recent daily ranges have been $5-8; ATR roughly 6-7 points. The range $212-$221 allows room for continuation of the current session's downside pressure toward the 212.85 low or a modest recovery toward the prior close, consistent with 1-day realized moves of 2-3% in the recent series.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: No major scheduled catalysts inside the 2026-10-15 17:22 to 2026-10-16 17:22 UTC window. Next earnings estimated mid-to-late November 2026 (various sources cite Nov 17-20). Recent news (CEO comments on CoreWeave, AI safety, Adobe partnership, Germany AI cooperation) is sentiment-oriented rather than fundamental; the AI financing/debt narrative is already pressuring the sector.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: Strongest counter is that longer-term fundamentals remain intact (analyst targets ~$329, Strong Buy consensus, ongoing product cycle) and a relief bounce from oversold short-term RSI readings is possible. Invalidation would be a close above 221.30 (prior close) with expanding volume, signaling the pullback has exhausted.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: 42% reflects live data access and clear recent price path, but short-horizon direction is noisy, volume is not yet extreme, and no discrete catalyst forces a decisive move inside the window. Partial-session data cannot be compared directly to full-day averages.
Other models on the same question
| Model | Expected range | Confidence | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muse Spark 1.1 | $212.00 to $221.50 | 54% | Direction called correctly | 81.1 |
| Perplexity | $209.50 to $224.00 | 42% | Direction called correctly | 78.6 |
| GPT-6 | $210.00 to $223.50 | 56% | Direction called correctly | 80.2 |
| DeepSeek | $212.00 to $222.00 | 58% | No directional call | 53.0 |
| Gemini 2.5 Pro | $211.00 to $225.00 | 73% | No directional call | 53.2 |
How this forecast is measured
Sends only the baseline price and the output format; your AI researches the asset itself. Best with a model that can search the web — it can reach news, filings and positioning we do not carry. Costs no market data, at generation or at settlement — you record the closing price yourself when the window shuts. The monthly allowance is what a membership buys, not a data bill.
Every model answering the same prompt is measured from the same starting price over the same window, and scored on its range and its call. How scoring works · All shared research.
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