NVDA 1-day forecast by Grok 4.5
Grok 4.5's 1-day forecast for NVDA, made 2026-10-14: expected range $215.00 to $228.00 at 45% confidence. Settled at $218.04: no directional call, score 52.1.
| Asset | NVDA |
|---|---|
| Model | Grok 4.5 |
| Recorded by | Forecastnest |
| Forecast made | |
| Horizon | 1-day (Equity / ETF 1D: the stored target below is authoritative; it may be a session close or an intraday instant.) |
| Window closes | |
| Price when asked | $221.19 |
| Price the model reported | $221.50 |
| Expected range | $215.00 to $228.00 |
| Confidence | 45% |
| Prompt style | No data |
| Status | Settled |
| Actual close | $218.04 |
| Traded range in the window | $212.85 to $221.68 |
| Result | No directional call |
| Score | 52.1 of 100 |
The model's reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: Live quotes from stockanalysis.com (220.81 at ~2:07 PM EDT Oct 14 2026), CNBC (~221.32), Motley Fool (~222.63), MarketWatch and others show NVDA trading near 221-222 after opening ~225.53, day range approx 220.6-226.0, prior close 228.52. NASDAQ regular session, USD, volume in shares. Sources: https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/nvda/ , https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/NVDA , https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/nvda/download-data .
(2) The current market regime as you read it: Pullback from recent 52-week high of 243.37 (Oct 6) amid broader tech/semiconductor weakness and hotter-than-expected CPI inflation data. Short-term selling pressure with volume elevated relative to recent quieter sessions; longer-term still above key moving averages after multi-month gains.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Anchored to ~221.50 live quote. Recent daily ranges 4-10 points; 20d high 243.37 low ~209; typical 1d moves 2-4% given beta >2. Range 215-228 allows continuation of today's decline or modest bounce within elevated volatility, skewed lower given intraday path and macro pressure.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: No major company-specific events in the 1-day window to Oct 15 close. Earnings estimated Nov 18 2026. Recent news includes minority stake interest in Doctolib, $250M UK AI safety compute commitment, collaborations (Danaher, LSEG), and sector pressure from inflation/CPI and Chinese competition concerns already reflected in the selloff. Sources: Benzinga, GuruFocus, Investors.com.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: Strong rebound on lower volume or positive sector rotation could push above 228 and invalidate mild downside. Persistent high-volume selling below 215 would support further decline. Counter-evidence is the overall AI infrastructure demand strength and analyst targets near 300+.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: Short 1-day horizon is noisy amid macro data reaction; mixed flows and incomplete session limit conviction. Live quotes available but exact 20d averages rely on aggregated public sources with minor variances.
Daily OHLCV (last five completed sessions, oldest to newest, NASDAQ, USD, share volume, split-adjusted): 2026-10-07 O237.69 H239.08 L236.38 C237.47 V81.77M; 2026-10-08 O234.92 H237.07 L229.85 C230.48 V118.70M; 2026-10-09 O233.84 H233.92 L229.11 C229.28 V84.65M; 2026-10-12 O228.73 H228.86 L224.90 C226.32 V70.69M; 2026-10-13 O224.34 H228.64 L223.06 C228.52 V84.04M. Sources: https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/nvda/download-data , https://financecharts.com/stocks/NVDA/summary/price .
Context: return_5d_pct approx -4.5% (from ~239.24 on Oct 6 to 228.52); high_20d 243.37; low_20d approx 209-212; avg_volume_20d approx 105-110M shares (from aggregated recent data).
Intraday evidence at answering: latest_price ~221.50 USD, quote_time ~2026-10-14T17:40:00Z (around window start), source stockanalysis.com/CNBC/MarketWatch, regular-session delayed/live quotes. PARTIAL SESSION: open ~225.53, high_so_far ~226.00, low_so_far ~220.6, cumulative volume ~50-60M as of mid-afternoon. Path shows open near prior close then steady decline on inflation news; observed reaction to macro already reflected. Remaining window expects possible further drift or stabilization absent new catalysts.
Catalyst assessment: Verified recent facts include inflation print pressuring rate-sensitive AI names and sector competition notes; these mainly affect sentiment rather than immediate NVDA fundamentals for this horizon. No scheduled catalysts inside the window.
Counter-evidence: ETF net buying in prior sessions and long-term AI demand support potential rebound; today's lower relative volume may indicate digestion rather than capitulation.
Invalidation: A close above 228 or sustained break of today's low without recovery would undermine the mild near-term bearish lean.
Other models on the same question
| Model | Expected range | Confidence | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muse Spark 1.1 | $217.00 to $227.00 | 48% | Direction called incorrectly | 30.9 |
| Gemini 3 Pro | $217.50 to $225.50 | 62% | No directional call | 53.5 |
| GPT-6 | $213.00 to $226.00 | 53% | Direction called correctly | 81.2 |
| DeepSeek | $220.00 to $228.50 | 55% | Direction called incorrectly | 47.4 |
| Perplexity | $214.00 to $230.00 | 55% | Direction called correctly | 80.4 |
How this forecast is measured
Sends only the baseline price and the output format; your AI researches the asset itself. Best with a model that can search the web — it can reach news, filings and positioning we do not carry. Costs no market data, at generation or at settlement — you record the closing price yourself when the window shuts. The monthly allowance is what a membership buys, not a data bill.
Every model answering the same prompt is measured from the same starting price over the same window, and scored on its range and its call. How scoring works · All shared research.
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