NVDA 1-day forecast by Gemini 3 Pro
Gemini 3 Pro's 1-day forecast for NVDA, made 2026-10-14: expected range $217.50 to $225.50 at 62% confidence. Settled at $218.04: no directional call, score 53.5.
| Asset | NVDA |
|---|---|
| Model | Gemini 3 Pro |
| Recorded by | Forecastnest |
| Forecast made | |
| Horizon | 1-day (Equity / ETF 1D: the stored target below is authoritative; it may be a session close or an intraday instant.) |
| Window closes | |
| Price when asked | $221.19 |
| Price the model reported | $221.62 |
| Expected range | $217.50 to $225.50 |
| Confidence | 62% |
| Prompt style | No data |
| Status | Settled |
| Actual close | $218.04 |
| Traded range in the window | $212.85 to $221.68 |
| Result | No directional call |
| Score | 53.5 of 100 |
The model's reasoning
(1) Data sources and intraday evidence: Quote retrieved from Morningstar (https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/xnas/nvda/quote) at 2026-10-14T17:40:00Z (13:40 EDT). Live regular-session price is $221.62 USD. PARTIAL SESSION statistics as of 13:40 EDT: open $225.53, high_so_far $226.00, low_so_far $221.11, cumulative_volume 53,185,470 shares. Prior to this, NVDA closed on 2026-10-13 at $228.52 (+0.97%). The move from $228.52 to $221.62 represents an observed intraday decline of -3.02% (-$6.90).
(2) Daily OHLCV and market regime: Completed daily bars (NASDAQ, USD, split-adjusted OHLC, volume in shares, 16:00 EDT cutoff; sources: NASDAQ, StockAnalysis, Investing.com): 2026-10-07 (O: $237.68, H: $239.08, L: $236.38, C: $237.47, V: 81,770,000); 2026-10-08 (O: $234.92, H: $237.07, L: $229.85, C: $230.48, V: 118,700,000); 2026-10-09 (O: $233.84, H: $233.92, L: $229.11, C: $229.28, V: 84,650,000); 2026-10-12 (O: $228.73, H: $228.86, L: $224.90, C: $226.32, V: 70,690,000); 2026-10-13 (O: $224.34, H: $228.64, L: $223.06, C: $228.52, V: 84,040,000). Context: return_5d_pct = -4.48% (versus 2026-10-06 close of $239.24); high_20d = $243.37 (2026-10-06); low_20d = $212.50 (2026-09-16); avg_volume_20d = 104,580,000 shares.
(3) Price range justification: Anchored to $221.62, the 1-day price range is established at $217.50-$225.50. With daily average true range near $6.00, upside is bounded near intraday resistance and VWAP around $225.50, while downside room extends to technical support near $217.50.
(4) Catalyst assessment: Recent news includes a minority stake in Doctolib and compute donations to UK AI Safety Research, but primary price movement is driven by semiconductor sector profit-taking and elevated US 10-year Treasury yields (5.22%). These reflect short-term macro/sentiment rebalancing rather than fundamental changes to NVDA's multi-year hyperscaler revenue growth.
(5) Counter-evidence and invalidation: Strongest counter-evidence is institutional buying on dips supported by 80%+ data center market share and robust hyperscaler capex expectations (~$800B in 2026). Invalidation condition: A sustained intraday move above $226.50 over the remaining window would invalidate the mild bearish consolidation thesis, while a breakdown below $217.00 would indicate deeper technical selling.
(6) Confidence justification: Confidence is set to 62%, reflecting short-term market noise and high equity index correlation over a 1-day window despite clear intraday downward momentum.
Other models on the same question
| Model | Expected range | Confidence | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muse Spark 1.1 | $217.00 to $227.00 | 48% | Direction called incorrectly | 30.9 |
| GPT-6 | $213.00 to $226.00 | 53% | Direction called correctly | 81.2 |
| DeepSeek | $220.00 to $228.50 | 55% | Direction called incorrectly | 47.4 |
| Perplexity | $214.00 to $230.00 | 55% | Direction called correctly | 80.4 |
| Grok 4.5 | $215.00 to $228.00 | 45% | No directional call | 52.1 |
How this forecast is measured
Sends only the baseline price and the output format; your AI researches the asset itself. Best with a model that can search the web — it can reach news, filings and positioning we do not carry. Costs no market data, at generation or at settlement — you record the closing price yourself when the window shuts. The monthly allowance is what a membership buys, not a data bill.
Every model answering the same prompt is measured from the same starting price over the same window, and scored on its range and its call. How scoring works · All shared research.
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