NVDA 1-day forecast by Perplexity
Perplexity's 1-day forecast for NVDA, made 2026-10-13: expected range $219.50 to $229.50 at 55% confidence. Settled at $222.99: direction called correctly, score 80.0.
| Asset | NVDA |
|---|---|
| Model | Perplexity |
| Recorded by | Forecastnest |
| Forecast made | |
| Horizon | 1-day (Equity / ETF 1D: the stored target below is authoritative; it may be a session close or an intraday instant.) |
| Window closes | |
| Price when asked | $224.62 |
| Price the model reported | $224.81 |
| Expected range | $219.50 to $229.50 |
| Confidence | 55% |
| Prompt style | No data |
| Status | Settled |
| Actual close | $222.99 |
| Traded range in the window | $222.82 to $228.64 |
| Result | Direction called correctly |
| Score | 80.0 of 100 |
The model's reasoning
(1) Price and data access: NVDA was quoted at $224.81, down 0.67%, as of 11:19 AM Eastern on October 13, 2026, from MarketBeat/Massive (https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/NVDA/news/). This is a regular-session fair-market-value quote, but it predates the 15:37 UTC window start by 18 minutes, so data access is labelled partial rather than live. The prior close was $226.32 on Nasdaq, in USD.
(2) Daily OHLCV: The last five completed Nasdaq sessions, oldest to newest, were: 2026-10-06 open 242.10, high 243.37, low 238.93, close 239.24, volume 101,701,900; 2026-10-07 open 237.69, high 239.08, low 236.38, close 237.47, volume 81,772,400; 2026-10-08 open 234.92, high 237.07, low 229.85, close 230.48, volume 118,697,400; 2026-10-09 open 233.84, high 233.92, low 229.11, close 229.28, volume 84,645,600; 2026-10-12 open 228.73, high 228.86, low 224.90, close 226.32, volume 70,089,000. Source: Yahoo Finance history for NVDA (https://nz.finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/history/), split-adjusted OHLC, USD, shares, Nasdaq sessions in US Eastern time.
(3) Context and technicals: return_5d_pct = -5.40% (latest completed close 226.32 versus 239.24 five sessions earlier). high_20d = 243.37 and low_20d = 211.16; avg_volume_20d = 104,195,645 shares. The five-day path is a persistent decline: each close was below the prior close, closes sat near the lower half of their daily ranges, and October 12 closed near its low. Recent volume was below the 20-session average, which is more consistent with orderly de-risking than a high-volume capitulation or breakout.
(4) Market regime and catalysts: The near-term regime is bearish for NVDA: semiconductor peers were also lower, and reporting cited concerns over AI-infrastructure spending returns, China competition from Huawei, and Microsoft’s in-house Maia chip plans (https://www.tipranks.com/news/why-nvidia-broadcom-and-marvell-stocks-extend-losses-in-premarket-today-october-13; https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/NVDA/news/). Company-specific positives-Vera Rubin production, the Cisco optical-module announcement, and SEMICON West participation from October 13-15-are mostly product/sentiment catalysts rather than near-term earnings events; no major scheduled NVDA earnings release falls inside this one-day window.
(5) Price range: The $219.50-$229.50 range is anchored to the $224.81 quote and allows roughly 2.4% downside versus 2.1% upside, reflecting the established short-term downtrend. The lower bound sits below the October 12 low of 224.90 and near the late-September congestion around 221-225; the upper bound is near the October 12 open/high area around 228.7-228.9. Intraday volume cannot be fairly compared with the full-day 20-session average because no verified same-time-of-day baseline was available.
(6) Counter-evidence and invalidation: The strongest counter-argument is that NVDA remains well above its 20-session low of 211.16, analyst sentiment remains broadly constructive, and product catalysts could prompt a sharp rebound if broader chip-sector selling abates. A sustained move back above the October 12 high of 228.86, especially on above-average volume, would undermine the bearish one-day view; conversely, a break below 224.90 would reinforce continuation toward the lower end of the range.
(7) Confidence: Confidence is 55% because the directional evidence is clear but the horizon is only one trading day, the quote is slightly pre-window, and macro or sector-driven reversals can overwhelm single-stock momentum. The mild downside skew, rather than a larger projected decline, reflects the absence of a confirmed company-specific negative catalyst within the window.
Other models on the same question
| Model | Expected range | Confidence | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-6 | $218.00 to $230.00 | 54% | Direction called correctly | 80.4 |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | $219.50 to $228.00 | 42% | Direction called correctly | 79.6 |
| Grok 4.5 | $221.00 to $228.50 | 42% | Direction called incorrectly | 30.7 |
| DeepSeek | $218.00 to $232.00 | 55% | No directional call | 52.4 |
How this forecast is measured
Sends only the baseline price and the output format; your AI researches the asset itself. Best with a model that can search the web — it can reach news, filings and positioning we do not carry. Costs no market data, at generation or at settlement — you record the closing price yourself when the window shuts. The monthly allowance is what a membership buys, not a data bill.
Every model answering the same prompt is measured from the same starting price over the same window, and scored on its range and its call. How scoring works · All shared research.
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