NVDA 1-day forecast by Muse Spark 1.1

The model's reasoning

(1) What you found, and where: Finnhub quote page shows NVDA Current Price $224.55, Open $224.34, High $226.61, Low $223.06, Previous Close $226.32 on 2026-10-13, intraday decline -0.78%【7830519311513429074†L34-L46】. Premarket on Public.com reported $224.67 at 9:00 AM EST Oct 13, down -0.73% vs prior close $226.32【384889236111592811†L93-L97】. After-hours Oct 13 $224.49 range $224.38-$226.51【384889236111592811†L36-L41】. Historical table from MarketMinute/FWNBC provides last 5 completed daily bars Oct 6-12 with OHLCV. News feed for Oct 13 shows 【entity-Nvidia¦canonical_name=Nvidia】 premarket -0.64% to $224.88 alongside Broadcom and Marvell weakness【288114176522918707†L23-L26】, China AI chip share falling to 34% per IDC via 【entity-Reuters¦canonical_name=Reuters】【288114176522918707†L12-L15】, RTX Spark ecosystem announcement and MGX/Vera Rubin NVL72 power partner news dated Oct 13.

(2) The current market regime as you read it: NVDA is in a short-term pullback within a longer uptrend. 5-day return -4.02% per Finnhub【7830519311513429074†L20-L22】, close well off Oct 6 all-time high $243.37【4455288776024087809†L21-L25】. 14-day RSI reported neutral at 50 and price above 50-day SMA $222.60 per CleaRank snapshot as of Oct 13 at $226.32【384889236111592811†L28-L31】. Beta 2.25 indicates high sensitivity. Recent closes sit in lower half of daily ranges with increasing downside volume on Oct 8 (118M) versus avg, suggesting distribution, but intraday Oct 13 low $223.06 holds above that SMA.

(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Using current $224.55 as anchor, 1-day ATR-style range about 1.8-2.2% given recent daily ranges ~$3-7. Recent lows $223.06 intraday and $224.90 Oct 12 low provide immediate support; failure opens $219-220 area which is ~2.5% below. Resistance $226.6 intraday high and $228.86 prior day high. Volatility elevated after 5.4% drop from $239.24 Oct 6 close to $226.32 Oct 12 close. Asymmetric downside bias given premarket weakness in AI semis and China share headline, hence range $219.50-$228.00 with more room below than above, not centered on quote.

(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: No earnings inside this 24h window (NVDA Q3 typically November). Known catalysts Oct 13: RTX Spark software ecosystem updates announced Oct 13【288114176522918707†L3-L9】 and HARTING joining MGX ecosystem for Vera Rubin NVL72 platform announced Oct 13, both sentiment-positive for platform adoption but not immediate revenue. Negative sentiment catalyst: IDC report that Nvidia China data-center share fell to 34% vs 【entity-Huawei¦canonical_name=Huawei】 28% H1 2026【288114176522918707†L12-L15】, plus sector-wide premarket weakness flagged by TipRanks【288114176522918707†L23-L26】. Buyback authorization $150B Sep 28 remains supportive flow. No Fed or major macro release flagged in window.

(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: Counter is oversold bounce and ecosystem tailwinds. RTX Spark launch enthusiasm drove stock near $240 Oct 6, and news flow Oct 13 is largely constructive on software. Volume on Oct 13 premarket 20-29M vs avg daily 104.17M【384889236111592811†L44-L47】 shows participation light, so selloff may exhaust. Invalidation of bearish tilt would be reclaim of $229.28 (Oct 9 close) with volume > avg, or break above intraday high $226.61 on Oct 13 that holds into close, suggesting China share concerns already priced.

(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: 42% reflects live intraday quote and verified 5-day OHLCV but incomplete 20-session history and mixed catalysts (positive product news vs negative share loss and sector drag). Short horizon is noise-dominated; directional edge is mild. Data_access live but confidence capped by partial volume history and inability to verify same-time-of-day volume baseline.

Daily OHLCV: Last 5 completed daily bars as of window start 2026-10-13T15:37Z (NASDAQ, USD, shares, split-adjusted, source MarketMinute tables):

- 2026-10-06: open 242.10, high 243.37, low 238.93, close 239.24, volume 101545430【4455288776024087809†L23-L26】

- 2026-10-07: open 237.69, high 239.08, low 236.38, close 237.47, volume 81642838【4455288776024087809†L23-L26】

- 2026-10-08: open 234.92, high 237.07, low 229.85, close 230.48, volume 118626097【4455288776024087809†L21-L24】

- 2026-10-09: open 233.84, high 233.92, low 229.11, close 229.28, volume 84645560【4455288776024087809†L21-L24】

- 2026-10-12: open 228.73, high 228.86, low 224.90, close 226.32, volume 70276964【4455288776024087809†L21-L23】

Excluded unfinished Oct 13 candle.

Context:

- return_5d_pct: Using latest close 226.32 (Oct 12) vs close 5 sessions earlier would require Oct 3 close which is not verified; using 4-session span Oct 6 to Oct 12: 100*(226.32/239.24-1) = -5.40%. True 5-session return with 6 closes cannot be calculated, set null for strict definition, -5.40% reported as available 4-interval proxy.

- high_20d: 243.37 verified as all-time high occurred Oct 6 2026【4455288776024087809†L63-L66】, also high in 5-day set. Full 20-session high not fully verified, but at least 243.37.

- low_20d: null (insufficient verified 20-session lows; lowest among last 5 is 224.90).

- avg_volume_20d: null (only 5 sessions verified, mean ~91.2M, not a valid 20-session mean per spec; reliable 20-session volume unavailable).

Sources and conventions:

- Sources: Finnhub NVDA quote page https://finnhub.io/?q=%22NVDA%22, MarketMinute historical table https://kotvtv.marketminute.com and https://fwnbc.marketminute.com, Public.com pre-market/after-hours summaries, TipRanks premarket note, CleaRank forecast snapshot.

- Exchange/venue: NASDAQ (XNAS) primary, USD currency.

- Daily session timezone/boundary: US Eastern, regular session 9:30-16:00 ET, close used.

- Price convention: split-adjusted OHLC, not dividend-adjusted Adj Close.

- Volume unit: shares. For 20-session mean, same unit required; not enough data so reported null.

Catalyst assessment:

- Verified recent news Oct 13: RTX Spark ecosystem ready, Broadcast 2.3 release; HARTING joins MGX ecosystem for Vera Rubin NVL72; IDC/Reuters China market share decline to 34%; premarket AI chip weakness; $150B buyback authorized Sep 28.

- Fundamental vs sentiment: China share loss changes medium-term business expectations for data-center revenue exposure if export restrictions persist; RTX Spark and MGX partnerships mainly reflect sentiment and platform stickiness near term, not immediate P&L. Premarket drag reflects sentiment rotation, not filing change. No verified scheduled catalyst inside 24h window (no earnings, no investor day listed).

Counter-evidence:

- Price: 5-day decline -4.02% already, close near 50-day SMA $222.60 support which has held YTD; RSI neutral 50 argues against momentum continuation. Volume on down days Oct 8 spike suggests capitulation could be near. Ecosystem news is net positive and could fuel reversal despite early weakness.

- Continuation evidence: closes below prior open 4 of last 5 days, lower highs sequence $243.37→239.08→237.07→233.92→228.86 shows downtrend; premarket still negative.

Invalidation:

- Price level: A verified daily close above $233.92 (Oct 9 high) or intraday print above $239.08 (Oct 7 high) would break lower-high pattern and undermine bearish 1-day thesis. Alternatively, a verified filing or official Nvidia statement refuting China share loss or announcing major US government license restoration would invalidate sentiment driver. These are observable future conditions, not yet occurred, and not trading instructions.

Intraday evidence at answering time (as of Window Starts 2026-10-13T15:37Z only):

- latest_price: $224.55 USD, quote_time: 2026-10-13 intraday (Finnhub snapshot, timestamp not precise to second, reported as live/regular-session)【7830519311513429074†L34-L41】; alternate snapshot $224.88 premarket down 0.64%【288114176522918707†L23-L26】, $224.67 premarket 9:00 AM EST【384889236111592811†L93-L97】, after-hours prior evening $224.49【384889236111592811†L36-L41】. All consistent around $224.5-225.

- reference_price/current_price contract: anchored to $224.55 Finnhub current price at window start, which is -0.78% vs prior close $226.32【7830519311513429074†L40-L44】.

- Pre-event price path: From Oct 6 high $243.37 to Oct 12 close $226.32 decline with gaps down; wicks: Oct 8 long lower wick $229.85 low recovering to $230.48 close, Oct 12 small range $224.90-$228.86 closing mid-range. Shows selling into strength.

- Already observed reaction: At window start, market already reflecting overnight China share headline and sector weakness; price down ~$1.77 intraday from $226.32 previous close【7830519311513429074†L40-L44】. No new post-event reaction beyond that at 15:37Z.

- PARTIAL SESSION Oct 13: open $224.34, high_so_far $226.61, low_so_far $223.0602, current $224.55 per Finnhub【7830519311513429074†L34-L41】, cumulative volume 20.94M to 29.66M early session vs average daily 104.17M【384889236111592811†L44-L47】, as-of Finnhub snapshot. Cannot establish relative intraday volume vs same-time baseline without historical intraday profile; therefore relative volume cannot be established.

- Remaining window expectation: With elapsed move from $226.32 to $224.55 already -0.78%, further downside to $219.5 possible if $223.06 low fails, but bounce toward $228 if ecosystem news offsets. Event appears partially reflected; further move depends on US session close and after-hours sentiment.

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