NVDA 1-day forecast by Grok 4
Grok 4's 1-day forecast for NVDA, made 2026-10-02: expected range $230.00 to $242.00 at 42% confidence. Settled at $237.28: direction called correctly, score 79.2.
| Asset | NVDA |
|---|---|
| Model | Grok 4 |
| Recorded by | Forecastnest |
| Forecast made | |
| Horizon | 1-day (Equity / ETF 1D: the stored target below is authoritative; it may be a session close or an intraday instant.) |
| Window closes | |
| Price when asked | $236.56 |
| Price the model reported | $235.20 |
| Expected range | $230.00 to $242.00 |
| Confidence | 42% |
| Prompt style | No data |
| Status | Settled |
| Actual close | $237.28 |
| Traded range in the window | $233.60 to $237.86 |
| Result | Direction called correctly |
| Score | 79.2 of 100 |
The model's reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: Live quotes from CNBC (235.29 at ~11:06 AM EDT), Yahoo Finance (235.02 at 11:08 AM EDT), and multiple aggregators show NVDA trading near $235 after opening at ~236 and printing a new 52-week/all-time high of 237.88 earlier in the session. Prior close was 230.86. Day range so far 234.53-237.88. Sources include CNBC, Yahoo Finance, StockAnalysis, TradeSmith, and Investing.com pages dated Oct 2 2026. ATR(14) near 5.82 from recent technical data.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: Strong bullish momentum after a multi-week recovery from July lows, driven by AI demand confirmation, a record $150B buyback authorization increase (announced ~Sep 28), and Morgan Stanley reinstating NVDA as its top semiconductor pick after meetings with management. Price is at/near all-time highs with market cap approaching $5.7T. Short-term realized volatility has compressed (20-day ~25% annualized) while longer-term remains elevated. Breadth and analyst consensus remain strongly constructive.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Anchored to the live ~$235.20 quote. Typical daily ATR of ~$5.8-6 supports a one-day swing of roughly ±2.5%. The lower bound at $230 allows for a partial retracement of today’s gap-up and profit-taking near the new high; the upper bound at $242 allows continuation if buying pressure persists into the close or after-hours. Range is asymmetric slightly higher to reflect the prevailing directional bias and recent high of 237.88 already achieved.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: No company-specific events (earnings next estimated mid-to-late November). Macro data or broader tech flows could influence, but the dominant near-term drivers remain the buyback program and positive analyst commentary already in the market. Weekend gap risk is limited given the Friday timing.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: A sharp fade from the new high on heavy volume could signal exhaustion after the multi-day rally and today’s gap, potentially driving a test of the prior close near 231 or lower support around 228. Invalidation of the mild bullish bias would be a close below ~230 with expanding volume and negative breadth in semiconductors.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: One-day equity forecasts are inherently noisy; the 42% reflects solid directional evidence from price action, news flow, and positioning yet acknowledges that intraday reversals near record highs remain common and that no high-conviction catalyst sits inside the exact 24-hour window.
Other models on the same question
| Model | Expected range | Confidence | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gemini 3 Pro | $233.50 to $239.50 | 68% | No directional call | 54.3 |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | $232.50 to $241.00 | 58% | No directional call | 53.3 |
| Perplexity | $232.50 to $239.50 | 58% | Direction called correctly | 81.4 |
| GPT-5.6 Sol | $232.00 to $243.00 | 67% | Direction called correctly | 82.0 |
| claude-opus-5-5 | $230.50 to $244.50 | 55% | Direction called incorrectly | 30.4 |
| DeepSeek | $233.00 to $242.00 | 55% | Direction called correctly | 81.1 |
How this forecast is measured
Sends only the baseline price and the output format; your AI researches the asset itself. Best with a model that can search the web — it can reach news, filings and positioning we do not carry. Costs no market data, at generation or at settlement — you record the closing price yourself when the window shuts. The monthly allowance is what a membership buys, not a data bill.
Every model answering the same prompt is measured from the same starting price over the same window, and scored on its range and its call. How scoring works · All shared research.
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