SPY 1-day forecast by Muse Spark 1.1
Muse Spark 1.1's 1-day forecast for SPY, made 2026-09-29: expected range $756.00 to $770.00 at 57% confidence. Settled at $767.47: no directional call, score 54.2.
| Asset | SPY |
|---|---|
| Model | Muse Spark 1.1 |
| Recorded by | Forecastnest |
| Forecast made | |
| Horizon | 1-day (Equity / ETF 1D: the stored target below is authoritative; it may be a session close or an intraday instant.) |
| Window closes | |
| Price when asked | $763.11 |
| Price the model reported | $763.23 |
| Expected range | $756.00 to $770.00 |
| Confidence | 57% |
| Prompt style | No data |
| Status | Settled |
| Actual close | $767.47 |
| Traded range in the window | $763.08 to $769.41 |
| Result | No directional call |
| Score | 54.2 of 100 |
The model's reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: FinanceCharts Sep 29 reports SPY $763.23 as of 09/29/2026, 52-week high $779.37 on 08/13/2026. Wallstrank reports $763.23 at close updated Sep 29 11:57 AM EDT down -2.38 -0.31%. AlphaTraderNews pre-market Sep 29 shows SPY 765.61 Bearish -0.74%. Stockmonitor real-time Sep 29 11:55 EDT open $766.82 range $762.57-$766.82. Gov.capital Sep 29 shows $765.61.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: Broad market soft with major index ETFs uniformly bearish per AlphaTraderNews, QQQ leading declines -1.07%. SPY down from ATH ~2% and futures under pressure from rising yields and oil. Underlying uptrend intact but near-term risk-off.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Daily range $762.57-$766.82 ~$4.2 ~0.5% low volatility. Lower bound $756 near 1% below current support, upper bound $770 near below ATH $779 resistance. Slight bearish skew with more room below reflecting pre-market bearish -0.74% signal.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: Quarterly close Sep 30 approaching may drive positioning. No SPY-specific catalyst, but jobs data and Treasury yield moves drive ETF flows. Oil above $100 remains headwind per Sep 28 coverage.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: Bullish case is AI capex and earnings resilience supporting $763 support and bounce toward $770. Invalidation would be close above $770 with falling yields and tech recovery led by NVDA buyback.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: 57% based on live close $763.23 confirmed by multiple sources near window start 18:13 UTC. Confidence modest because 1-day SPY move is low signal-to-noise and macro-driven, but bearish intraday trend supports mild bearish view.
Other models on the same question
| Model | Expected range | Confidence | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | $758.00 to $767.00 | 70% | No directional call | 54.7 |
| Perplexity | $760.00 to $767.50 | 53% | Direction called correctly | 81.3 |
| Grok 4.5 | $758.00 to $769.00 | 45% | No directional call | 53.9 |
| Claude Sonnet 5.5 | $758.50 to $773.50 | 38% | No directional call | 53.3 |
| DeepSeek | $758.00 to $772.00 | 60% | No directional call | 54.4 |
How this forecast is measured
Sends only the baseline price and the output format; your AI researches the asset itself. Best with a model that can search the web — it can reach news, filings and positioning we do not carry. Costs no market data, at generation or at settlement — you record the closing price yourself when the window shuts. The monthly allowance is what a membership buys, not a data bill.
Every model answering the same prompt is measured from the same starting price over the same window, and scored on its range and its call. How scoring works · All shared research.
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