MSFT 1-day forecast by GPT-6
GPT-6's 1-day forecast for MSFT, made 2026-09-28: expected range $497.00 to $516.00 at 46% confidence. Settled at $512.67: direction called incorrectly, score 31.3.
| Asset | MSFT |
|---|---|
| Model | GPT-6 |
| Recorded by | Forecastnest |
| Forecast made | |
| Horizon | 1-day (Equity / ETF 1D: the stored target below is authoritative; it may be a session close or an intraday instant.) |
| Window closes | |
| Price when asked | $506.92 |
| Price the model reported | $507.81 |
| Expected range | $497.00 to $516.00 |
| Confidence | 46% |
| Prompt style | No data |
| Status | Settled |
| Actual close | $512.67 |
| Traded range in the window | $502.40 to $513.33 |
| Result | Direction called incorrectly |
| Score | 31.3 of 100 |
The model's reasoning
(1) Price evidence: Stock Analysis reported MSFT at $507.81 at 10:32 AM Eastern on September 28, seven minutes before the 14:39 UTC window start. I could not verify a trade at the exact start, so this is a recent intraday quote rather than the baseline price: https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/msft/
(2) Market regime: The verified quote was 1.62% below Friday's $516.17 close, following Friday's 3.66% rise. Microsoft announced new Copilot Home, Code and Autopilot features on Friday; today's decline suggests that announcement alone has not sustained the rally. These observations support a mild bearish near-term reading, not a claim that the decline will continue: https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/msft/history/ and https://blogs.microsoft.com/blog/2026/09/25/introducing-the-new-copilot-with-home-code-and-autopilot/
(3) Price range: $497-$516 gives more room below the verified $507.81 quote. Today's reported $502.22 low and Friday's $516.17 close frame the range; a move below today's low could extend the pullback, while a recovery toward Friday's close would challenge it: https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/msft/
(4) Catalyst: The Bureau of Labor Statistics schedules its August job openings report for September 29 at 10:00 AM Eastern, within the forecast window. The result is unknown; a change in rate expectations could affect large technology stocks before the window ends: https://www.bls.gov/jlt/
(5) Counterargument: Friday's Copilot announcement may continue to attract interest, and today's early loss could reverse. A sustained recovery toward $516 would invalidate the near-term bearish interpretation. The product announcement is an observed fact, while any resulting revenue effect remains unverified: https://blogs.microsoft.com/blog/2026/09/25/introducing-the-new-copilot-with-home-code-and-autopilot/
(6) Confidence: 46% reflects a clear early-session pullback but limited evidence about its cause or persistence. The latest verified quote predates the window start, and the scheduled labor release adds substantial uncertainty.
Other models on the same question
| Model | Expected range | Confidence | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Perplexity | $512.50 to $522.80 | 57% | Direction called incorrectly | 44.8 |
| Claude Opus 5.5 | $502.00 to $518.00 | 30% | Direction called incorrectly | 31.2 |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | $500.00 to $514.00 | 65% | No directional call | 54.0 |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | $500.00 to $514.00 | 58% | No directional call | 53.7 |
| Grok 4.5 | $500.00 to $515.00 | 50% | No directional call | 53.3 |
| DeepSeek | $509.00 to $524.00 | 60% | No directional call | 29.4 |
How this forecast is measured
Sends only the baseline price and the output format; your AI researches the asset itself. Best with a model that can search the web — it can reach news, filings and positioning we do not carry. Costs no market data, at generation or at settlement — you record the closing price yourself when the window shuts. The monthly allowance is what a membership buys, not a data bill.
Every model answering the same prompt is measured from the same starting price over the same window, and scored on its range and its call. How scoring works · All shared research.
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