NVDA 1-day forecast by GPT-5.6 Sol
GPT-5.6 Sol's 1-day forecast for NVDA, made 2026-09-24: expected range $218.50 to $229.00 at 58% confidence. Settled at $225.06: direction called incorrectly, score 31.0.
| Asset | NVDA |
|---|---|
| Model | GPT-5.6 Sol |
| Recorded by | Forecastnest |
| Forecast made | |
| Horizon | 1-day (Equity / ETF 1D: the stored target below is authoritative; it may be a session close or an intraday instant.) |
| Window closes | |
| Price when asked | $224.12 |
| Price the model reported | $224.29 |
| Expected range | $218.50 to $229.00 |
| Confidence | 58% |
| Prompt style | No data |
| Status | Settled |
| Actual close | $225.06 |
| Traded range in the window | $223.13 to $226.94 |
| Result | Direction called incorrectly |
| Score | 31.0 of 100 |
The model's reasoning
(1) What I found: Investing.com showed NVDA at $224.29, down 0.54%, with an intraday range of $221.09-$224.48 and a displayed real-time timestamp of 12:43:58 ET; because that quote timestamp is earlier than the requested 17:30 UTC baseline, I treat $224.29 as the best available near-window estimate rather than an exact 17:30 UTC print. The prior session closed at $225.51 after a 1.47% decline. Sources: https://www.investing.com/equities/nvidia-corp-historical-data and https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/NVDA/chart/
(2) Market regime: The immediate regime is mixed but slightly risk-off for semiconductors. NVDA recovered substantially from the session low near $221, which weakens the short-term bearish case, but it remains below the previous close while semiconductor shares face pressure from rising Treasury yields. Reports today cited the U.S. 10-year yield above 5%, higher oil prices and broader semiconductor weakness; at the same time, the Nasdaq and S&P 500 were roughly flat, suggesting the pressure is more concentrated in rate-sensitive and chip names than a broad market liquidation. Sources: https://www.tipranks.com/news/nvidia-amd-intel-stocks-slipping-heres-why and https://www.investing.com/equities/nvidia-corp-historical-data
(3) Price range: I use $218.50-$229.00 for the next one-day window. The downside extends below today's $221.09 low because NVDA has recently shown multi-dollar daily ranges and remains sensitive to bond-yield moves; $218-$219 also overlaps the September 17-18 trading area. The upper bound sits just above the September 23 high of $228.95. The range is deliberately skewed slightly downward from the reported $224.29 anchor because the near-term macro pressure is negative even though the intraday recovery is constructive. Source for historical levels: https://www.investing.com/equities/nvidia-corp-historical-data
(4) Catalysts: The dominant catalyst inside this short window is macro rather than a scheduled NVIDIA earnings event. Today's semiconductor weakness has been linked to Treasury yields above 5%, oil-driven inflation concerns and uncertainty around U.S.-China discussions, which are particularly relevant to NVIDIA because Chinese access to AI accelerators remains an important policy issue. NVIDIA's investor-relations site does not currently list an imminent earnings release; its latest reported quarter was fiscal Q2 2027 on August 26, with revenue of $96.2 billion and Data Center revenue of $89.0 billion. Sources: https://investor.nvidia.com/financial-info/financial-reports/default.aspx and https://investor.nvidia.com/news/press-release-details/2026/NVIDIA-Announces-Financial-Results-for-Second-Quarter-Fiscal-2027/
(5) Counter-argument and invalidation: The strongest bullish counterpoint is that the underlying AI demand picture remains exceptionally strong, while today's recovery from roughly $221 toward $224 shows buyers absorbing weakness. A sustained move back through roughly $225.50 and then the $228.95 prior-session high would undermine the mild-bearish one-day view. Conversely, renewed weakness below today's $221.09 low would reinforce it. NVIDIA's latest quarterly report showed 106% year-over-year revenue growth and 117% Data Center growth, providing substantial fundamental support beneath short-term macro volatility. Source: https://investor.nvidia.com/news/press-release-details/2026/NVIDIA-Announces-Financial-Results-for-Second-Quarter-Fiscal-2027/
(6) Confidence: 58%. The macro and relative-price evidence supports a modest downside bias over one day, but conviction is limited because NVDA has already rebounded sharply from its session low, the broader indices are comparatively stable, and the freshest directly timestamped quote I could verify was not exactly at the 17:30 UTC baseline. That combination favors MILD BEARISH rather than a stronger directional call.
Other models on the same question
| Model | Expected range | Confidence | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muse Spark 1.1 | $221.00 to $227.50 | 56% | Direction called correctly | 80.3 |
| Gemini 3 Pro | $216.50 to $232.00 | 52% | No directional call | 52.1 |
| Grok 4.5 | $219.00 to $228.00 | 42% | Direction called incorrectly | 31.7 |
| DeepSeek V3 | $220.00 to $230.00 | 58% | Direction called incorrectly | 31.0 |
How this forecast is measured
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