SPY 1-day forecast by Grok 4.5
Grok 4.5's 1-day forecast for SPY, made 2026-09-24: expected range $758.00 to $770.00 at 42% confidence. Settled at $769.70: no directional call, score 53.7.
| Asset | SPY |
|---|---|
| Model | Grok 4.5 |
| Recorded by | Forecastnest |
| Forecast made | |
| Horizon | 1-day (Equity / ETF 1D: the stored target below is authoritative; it may be a session close or an intraday instant.) |
| Window closes | |
| Price when asked | $764.22 |
| Price the model reported | $764.37 |
| Expected range | $758.00 to $770.00 |
| Confidence | 42% |
| Prompt style | No data |
| Status | Settled |
| Actual close | $769.70 |
| Traded range in the window | $763.25 to $770.31 |
| Result | No directional call |
| Score | 53.7 of 100 |
The model's reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: Live quotes from Yahoo Finance as of approximately 11:00 AM EDT on 2026-09-24 show SPY at $764.37, down 0.45% from the prior close of $767.81, with a day's range of $763.62-$766.43. Supporting prints from Marketscreener, Barchart, and TradeSmith confirm trading near $765 earlier in the session. News from Bloomberg, Yahoo Finance, and Benzinga highlights a bond sell-off (30-year yields at multi-year highs), rising oil prices amid Middle East tensions, and the ongoing Trump-Xi meeting as key pressures.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: SPY remains in a longer-term uptrend near its 52-week high of $779.37, supported by strong earnings growth expectations for 2026, but short-term action shows risk-off pressure from higher yields and geopolitical uncertainty. Breadth has been mixed and leadership remains concentrated in technology/AI names. Realized volatility is moderate (around 13% annualized from recent data).
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Anchored to the live $764.37 quote, the one-day range of $758-$770 reflects typical daily ATR of roughly $5-8 in recent sessions plus modest expansion for yield and oil volatility. Downside room to the $758-760 zone aligns with the prior day's low and recent support; upside to $770 would require a relief bounce toward the prior close and recent highs near $773-775.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: The Trump-Xi discussions and related trade/AI topics remain the primary near-term event; weekly jobless claims, building permits, new home sales, and Fed speaker remarks are also on the calendar. No major earnings dominate, but Costco and a few others report. Oil price swings and Treasury yield moves are the most immediate risks.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: A constructive outcome from the Trump-Xi meeting or a sharp pullback in yields/oil could reverse the mild downside bias and push SPY back toward $770+. Invalidation would be a decisive break above $768-770 with volume or a breakdown below $760 that accelerates selling.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: Short-horizon direction is inherently noisy; the mild bearish lean rests on current yield and geopolitical pressure rather than a structural breakdown. Live data confirm the price and catalysts, but one-day outcomes remain close to a coin-flip, hence the modest 42% confidence.
Other models on the same question
| Model | Expected range | Confidence | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 Sol | $755.00 to $770.00 | 57% | No directional call | 54.1 |
| Claude Opus 5.5 | $757.00 to $775.00 | 55% | Direction called incorrectly | 31.1 |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | $762.00 to $778.00 | 52% | No directional call | 53.8 |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | $754.50 to $767.50 | 75% | Direction called incorrectly | 14.2 |
| Kimi | $758.00 to $772.00 | 55% | Direction called correctly | 80.4 |
| DeepSeek V3 | $757.00 to $771.00 | 62% | Direction called incorrectly | 31.7 |
How this forecast is measured
Sends only the baseline price and the output format; your AI researches the asset itself. Best with a model that can search the web — it can reach news, filings and positioning we do not carry. Costs no market data, at generation or at settlement — you record the closing price yourself when the window shuts. The monthly allowance is what a membership buys, not a data bill.
Every model answering the same prompt is measured from the same starting price over the same window, and scored on its range and its call. How scoring works · All shared research.
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