SPY 1-day forecast by Gemini 1.5 Pro
Gemini 1.5 Pro's 1-day forecast for SPY, made 2026-09-24: expected range $754.50 to $767.50 at 75% confidence. Settled at $769.70: direction called incorrectly, score 14.2.
| Asset | SPY |
|---|---|
| Model | Gemini 1.5 Pro |
| Recorded by | Forecastnest |
| Forecast made | |
| Horizon | 1-day (Equity / ETF 1D: the stored target below is authoritative; it may be a session close or an intraday instant.) |
| Window closes | |
| Price when asked | $764.22 |
| Price the model reported | $764.42 |
| Expected range | $754.50 to $767.50 |
| Confidence | 75% |
| Prompt style | No data |
| Status | Settled |
| Actual close | $769.70 |
| Traded range in the window | $763.25 to $770.31 |
| Result | Direction called incorrectly |
| Score | 14.2 of 100 |
The model's reasoning
(1) Found SPY trading around $764.42 as of 11:05 AM EDT on September 24, 2026, dropping 0.44% on the day, with data sourced from live quotes. The broader S&P 500 index closed 0.8% lower yesterday, and pressure continues today amid climbing Treasury yields and surging energy prices, according to Zacks Investment Research and BNN Bloomberg.
(2) The market has entered a defensive regime pressured by tighter financial conditions. Yesterday's Federal Reserve 25-basis-point rate hike to the 3.75%-4.00% range, combined with hawkish commentary suggesting another hike this year, has pushed the 10-year Treasury yield above 5.13%. Compounding this, Brent crude surpassing $103 per barrel due to Middle East tensions is exacerbating inflation anxieties and weighing heavily on equities, particularly the tech sector.
(3) My 1-day price range of $754.50-$767.50 is anchored to the $764.42 spot. Given the breakdown in near-term momentum and DeMark analysis placing a pivot low at $763.88, a breach of today's intraday low of $763.62 invites further downside toward the $755 support zone. The upper bound is capped near yesterday's close of $767.81, as broad selling pressure (with decliners outnumbering advancers nearly 2-to-1) limits upside recovery in the immediate term.
(4) Scheduled catalysts today include President Trump and President Xi Jinping's meetings at the White House focusing on trade and AI, which could inject sudden headline volatility. Additionally, markets continue digesting hawkish comments from Fed officials like John Williams and Michael Barr, as well as rising oil prices driven by geopolitical tensions surrounding Iran mentioned at the UN.
(5) The strongest counter-argument to this bearish view is the resilience of the underlying U.S. economy, highlighted by a surprising 6.4% surge in single-family home sales for August. If afternoon headlines from the White House talks skew highly positive on trade or AI, or if bond yields unexpectedly retrace, SPY could reverse its intraday losses and push back toward the $770.43 pivot high, invalidating the bearish momentum.
(6) Confidence is at 75% because the macro headwinds-a fresh Fed rate hike, surging oil, and yields at multi-decade highs-provide a clear directional bias for risk-off behavior in the short term. However, the potential for unpredictable geopolitical headlines from the White House meetings warrants a 25% margin of uncertainty.
Other models on the same question
| Model | Expected range | Confidence | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 Sol | $755.00 to $770.00 | 57% | No directional call | 54.1 |
| Claude Opus 5.5 | $757.00 to $775.00 | 55% | Direction called incorrectly | 31.1 |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | $762.00 to $778.00 | 52% | No directional call | 53.8 |
| Grok 4.5 | $758.00 to $770.00 | 42% | No directional call | 53.7 |
| Kimi | $758.00 to $772.00 | 55% | Direction called correctly | 80.4 |
| DeepSeek V3 | $757.00 to $771.00 | 62% | Direction called incorrectly | 31.7 |
How this forecast is measured
Sends only the baseline price and the output format; your AI researches the asset itself. Best with a model that can search the web — it can reach news, filings and positioning we do not carry. Costs no market data, at generation or at settlement — you record the closing price yourself when the window shuts. The monthly allowance is what a membership buys, not a data bill.
Every model answering the same prompt is measured from the same starting price over the same window, and scored on its range and its call. How scoring works · All shared research.
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