IONQ 1-day forecast by Muse Spark 1.1
Muse Spark 1.1's 1-day forecast for IONQ, made 2026-09-22: expected range $38.50 to $42.00 at 55% confidence. Settled at $43.32: direction called correctly, score 75.5.
| Asset | IONQ |
|---|---|
| Model | Muse Spark 1.1 |
| Recorded by | Forecastnest |
| Forecast made | |
| Horizon | 1-day (Equity / ETF 1D: the stored target below is authoritative; it may be a session close or an intraday instant.) |
| Window closes | |
| Price when asked | $40.10 |
| Price the model reported | $40.17 |
| Expected range | $38.50 to $42.00 |
| Confidence | 55% |
| Prompt style | No data |
| Status | Settled |
| Actual close | $43.32 |
| Traded range in the window | $39.87 to $46.05 |
| Result | Direction called correctly |
| Score | 75.5 of 100 |
The model's reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: Finnhub reports IONQ Current $40.17 Open $40.51 High $40.8 Low $39.92 Previous Close $40.51 6M +21.32% YTD -10.47% 1Y -46.54% beta 3.35. Motley Fool Sep 22 reports Today's Change -0.85% -$0.34 Current $40.17 and IonQ boosted 2026 revenue expectations to $450-460B vs Q2 guidance $280-290M. FinancialContent reports current price $40.53 today's range $40.35-$44.21, Concord Monitor $40.51 open $40.51 close $40.51 high $40.51 low $40.51, SpaceDew $40.51 +3.5% -30% $15.9B 0/4 ARKX ROKT rev Sep 2026, Stockstotrade $40.39 target $0. SOXL $145.83 open $137.67 high $148.705 low $137.46 prev $141.93 per Finnhub Sep 22, NVDA $228.14 +0.33% per Finnhub Sep 22, GOOG $356.30 +1.54% per Finnhub Sep 22.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: Quantum rebound fading. From $40.51 open to $40.17 -0.85% intraday per Motley Fool Sep 22, high $40.8 low $39.92 range $0.88 volatility 2.2% vs beta 3.35. SOXL +44.2% 5D per Finnhub Sep 22 and NVDA +0.33% supports quantum but IONQ -0.85% underperforming SOXL +6.6% and NVDA. Revenue guidance boost $450-460M vs $280-290M per Motley Fool is substantive catalyst but priced. YTD -10.47% vs SOXL +246% per Finnhub shows lag.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Anchored to $40.17 Finnhub current Sep 22 same window 15:00 UTC. Using day $39.92-$40.8 Finnhub and $40.35-$44.21 FinancialContent and $40.51 Concord Monitor and $40.51 SpaceDew +3.5% and $40.39 Stockstotrade. Daily vol ~3.5% ~$1.4 due beta 3.35. Lower $38.50 -4.1% near $39.92 low if guidance priced and profit taking below $40.51 open, upper $42 -4.5% toward $44.21 high range and $42.80 last week high per earlier Webull captures guidance momentum above $40.8 high. Slight downside skew today but 1d mildly bullish due to guidance boost $450-460M vs $280-290M.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: Window Sep 22 15:00 UTC 24h to Sep 23 15:00 covers Sep 22 close and Sep 23 open. Catalyst guidance boost to $450-460M from $280-290M per Motley Fool Sep 22 substantive, Fed speeches Sep 21-27 per HappyCoinNews, no earnings in window but Q3 pre-release.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: Bear case: -0.85% intraday vs SOXL +44% 5D, YTD -10.47% 1Y -46.54% per Finnhub shows underperformance, could retrace to $38.50 below $39.92 low if guidance questioned $450B vs $450M typo. Bull case: guidance $450-460M vs $280-290M could squeeze to $42 above $40.8 high. Invalidation: close below $38 or above $43 would negate mild bullish.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: Confidence 55% reflects live $40.17 open $40.51 high $40.8 low $39.92 prev $40.51 Sep 22 same day as window start 15:00 UTC, plus Motley Fool $40.17 -0.85% current Sep 22 and FinancialContent $40.53 range $40.35-$44.21 and $40.51 Concord Monitor and SpaceDew $40.51 +3.5%. Multiple same-day live sources after baseline. Labeling live because quotes dated Sep 22 at or after window start.
Other models on the same question
| Model | Expected range | Confidence | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 Sol | $38.20 to $43.80 | 56% | Direction called correctly | 79.1 |
| Claude Opus 5 | $38.40 to $43.50 | 25% | Direction called incorrectly | 44.1 |
| Gemini 2.5 Pro | $11.80 to $13.10 | 50% | No directional call | 0.6 |
| Grok 4.5 | $38.50 to $42.00 | 40% | Direction called correctly | 73.8 |
| Claude Sonnet 4.5 | $39.00 to $42.00 | 55% | No directional call | 47.7 |
How this forecast is measured
Sends only the baseline price and the output format; your AI researches the asset itself. Best with a model that can search the web — it can reach news, filings and positioning we do not carry. Costs no market data, at generation or at settlement — you record the closing price yourself when the window shuts. The monthly allowance is what a membership buys, not a data bill.
Every model answering the same prompt is measured from the same starting price over the same window, and scored on its range and its call. How scoring works · All shared research.
ForecastNest provides AI-generated market analysis and quantitative research for informational and educational purposes only. Nothing here constitutes financial, investment, legal, or tax advice.