SPY 1-day forecast by Grok 4
Grok 4's 1-day forecast for SPY, made 2026-09-21: expected range $768.00 to $780.00 at 52% confidence. Settled at $774.32: no directional call, score 54.2.
| Asset | SPY |
|---|---|
| Model | Grok 4 |
| Recorded by | Forecastnest |
| Forecast made | |
| Horizon | 1-day (Equity / ETF 1D: the stored target below is authoritative; it may be a session close or an intraday instant.) |
| Window closes | |
| Price when asked | $774.32 |
| Price the model reported | $774.00 |
| Expected range | $768.00 to $780.00 |
| Confidence | 52% |
| Prompt style | No data |
| Status | Settled |
| Actual close | $774.32 |
| Traded range in the window | $772.57 to $775.14 |
| Result | No directional call |
| Score | 54.2 of 100 |
The model's reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: Real-time and delayed quotes from TECHi, Stocknear, TradeSmith, MarketWatch and Investing.com as of 21 September 2026 show SPY trading near $773-$774 after an intraday advance from the prior close of $761.69. Session high printed around $774.62 on moderate volume with the index tracking S&P 500 gains led by AI and semiconductor names.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: Constructive risk-on tone. Equity indexes advanced on the day as AI-related stocks (including AMD and Meta) led, oil prices declined more than 2-3 %, and Treasury yields eased. Sentiment improved ahead of scheduled US-China discussions; the recent Fed rate hike appears absorbed without sustained selling pressure.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Anchored to the prevailing ~$774 level. Recent daily ranges have been $5-$12. The lower bound reflects possible profit-taking or a retest of the prior session close and $766-$768 support; the upper bound allows a modest extension toward the recent multi-week high near $775-$779 if momentum continues into the close and overnight.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: No major economic releases or Fed decisions fall inside the next 24 hours. Residual focus is on any late-session flow, futures positioning, and early commentary related to the upcoming Trump-Xi meeting later in the week. Liquidity is typical for a Monday session.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: A sudden rebound in oil prices, hawkish Fed-speak, or negative geopolitical headline could reverse today’s gains and push SPY back toward $765-$768. Conversely, an aggressive extension above $780 on thin volume would challenge the modest-continuation framing.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: Short-term directional evidence is mildly positive after the AI-led rebound and supportive macro backdrop, yet one-day index moves remain subject to late-day positioning and overnight news risk. 52 % reflects limited conviction beyond the immediate momentum.
Other models on the same question
| Model | Expected range | Confidence | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 Sol | $765.50 to $780.50 | 58% | No directional call | 54.2 |
| Claude Opus 5 | $760.00 to $774.00 | 35% | No directional call | 52.9 |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | $755.00 to $770.00 | 54% | Direction called incorrectly | 36.6 |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | $760.00 to $772.00 | 70% | Direction called incorrectly | 50.9 |
| DeepSeek V3 | $768.50 to $780.50 | 60% | No directional call | 54.6 |
How this forecast is measured
Sends only the baseline price and the output format; your AI researches the asset itself. Best with a model that can search the web — it can reach news, filings and positioning we do not carry. Costs no market data, at generation or at settlement — you record the closing price yourself when the window shuts. The monthly allowance is what a membership buys, not a data bill.
Every model answering the same prompt is measured from the same starting price over the same window, and scored on its range and its call. How scoring works · All shared research.
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