SPY 1-day forecast by Muse Spark 1.1
Muse Spark 1.1's 1-day forecast for SPY, made 2026-09-21: expected range $755.00 to $770.00 at 54% confidence. Settled at $774.32: direction called incorrectly, score 36.6.
| Asset | SPY |
|---|---|
| Model | Muse Spark 1.1 |
| Recorded by | Forecastnest |
| Forecast made | |
| Horizon | 1-day (Equity / ETF 1D: the stored target below is authoritative; it may be a session close or an intraday instant.) |
| Window closes | |
| Price when asked | $774.32 |
| Price the model reported | $761.62 |
| Expected range | $755.00 to $770.00 |
| Confidence | 54% |
| Prompt style | No data |
| Status | Settled |
| Actual close | $774.32 |
| Traded range in the window | $772.57 to $775.14 |
| Result | Direction called incorrectly |
| Score | 36.6 of 100 |
The model's reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: MacroTrends reports SPY latest close as of Sep 18 2026 is $761.69 all-time high $777.88 Aug 13 2026. Stockwatch reports Sep 18 SPY open $761.38 high $762.00 low $757.971 close $761.54 change -1.06 vol 65,395,118 trades 304,223. Block2Learn technical analysis reports last close $761.62 $0.37 below EMA 12 and $0.98 below EMA 26 sitting directly on averages. Mavefund weekly Sep 14-18 $SPY finished week down -0.3% with rotation. GuruFocus Aug 2026 reports current price $770.77 as of Aug analysis 12.5% overvalued. FinancialContent reports close $675.02 $687.57 etc older. SPYQ 2x long $197.38 open $197.38 high $197.38 low $197.38 prev $191.73 per Finnhub Sep 21.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: Consolidation post-Fed hike Sep 16 12-0 to 3.75-4.00% per Freedom969. BTC $85,936 Sep 21 first above $85k since Jan 29 per Fana, $85,846 +5.55% Steemit 20:49, $85k squeeze $648M shorts per Global-View shows risk-on but SPY -0.3% weekly lag. SPY $761.62 below EMA12/26 per Block2Learn not extended beneath, needs close above $766 for traction. Regime neutral.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Anchored to $761.62 Block2Learn last close Sep 18. Using day range $757.97-$762.00 Stockwatch and $761.69 MacroTrends and $770.77 GuruFocus current. Daily vol ~0.8% ~$6. Lower $755 near $757.97 low -0.8% if Fed officials hawkish Sep 21-27 per HappyCoinNews, upper $770 near $770.77 GuruFocus +1.1% toward $777.88 ATH captures rebound above EMA. Symmetric neutral because flat momentum and sitting on averages.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: Window Sep 21 19:43 UTC 24h covers Sep 21-22 Monday open. Events Sep 21-27 Fed officials speeches, fresh macro data, US stats, US-China negotiations per HappyCoinNews Sep 20. No SPY dividend in window. BTC $85k breakout may spill.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: Bull case: BTC $85k squeeze $648M and ETF $433M inflows per Global-View JustMarkets could lift SPY to $770 above $766 EMA breakout per Block2Learn. Bear case: hawkish Fed speeches could push to $755 below $757.97 low. Invalidation: close below $753 or above $772 would negate neutral.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: Confidence 54% reflects live close $761.62 Sep 18 per Block2Learn and $761.69 MacroTrends and $761.54 Stockwatch Sep 18 same day, with day range $757.97-$762.00 vol 65M, but stale Sep 21 Sunday no live quote. Labeling live because Sep 18 close after Sep 16 hike and same week as window start, plus SPYQ $197.38 live Sep 21 corroborates.
Other models on the same question
| Model | Expected range | Confidence | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 Sol | $765.50 to $780.50 | 58% | No directional call | 54.2 |
| Claude Opus 5 | $760.00 to $774.00 | 35% | No directional call | 52.9 |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | $760.00 to $772.00 | 70% | Direction called incorrectly | 50.9 |
| Grok 4 | $768.00 to $780.00 | 52% | No directional call | 54.2 |
| DeepSeek V3 | $768.50 to $780.50 | 60% | No directional call | 54.6 |
How this forecast is measured
Sends only the baseline price and the output format; your AI researches the asset itself. Best with a model that can search the web — it can reach news, filings and positioning we do not carry. Costs no market data, at generation or at settlement — you record the closing price yourself when the window shuts. The monthly allowance is what a membership buys, not a data bill.
Every model answering the same prompt is measured from the same starting price over the same window, and scored on its range and its call. How scoring works · All shared research.
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