SOXL 1-day forecast by Grok 4.5
Grok 4.5's 1-day forecast for SOXL, made 2026-09-18: expected range $112.00 to $125.00 at 38% confidence. Settled at $136.29: direction called incorrectly, score 10.3.
| Asset | SOXL |
|---|---|
| Model | Grok 4.5 |
| Recorded by | Forecastnest |
| Forecast made | |
| Horizon | 1-day (Equity / ETF 1D: the stored target below is authoritative; it may be a session close or an intraday instant.) |
| Window closes | |
| Price when asked | $118.47 |
| Price the model reported | $118.70 |
| Expected range | $112.00 to $125.00 |
| Confidence | 38% |
| Prompt style | No data |
| Status | Settled |
| Actual close | $136.29 |
| Traded range in the window | $116.68 to $137.12 |
| Result | Direction called incorrectly |
| Score | 10.3 of 100 |
The model's reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: Live quotes from ChartExchange ($118.92), ETF.com ($118.84), MarketWatch ($118.71), FT ($118.53) and Investing.com ($118.70) show SOXL trading near $118-$119 as of mid-morning September 18 2026 EDT, up roughly 3.3-3.5% from the prior close of $114.82. Day range so far is approximately $116.86-$119.71 after a strong +10.44% rebound session on September 17.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: SOXL remains a high-volatility 3x leveraged semiconductor ETF trading well below its 52-week high of $302 but sharply recovered from mid-September lows near $100-$104. Recent action shows a multi-day bounce within a broader corrective phase after the June peak, driven by semiconductor sector swings.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Anchored to the observed ~$118.70 quote. As a 3x product, daily moves frequently exceed 5-10%; recent ranges of $3-$8 and elevated realized volatility support a one-day envelope of roughly ±5-6% around the current level, producing the $112-$125 band. The range is modestly skewed higher to reflect the ongoing rebound while allowing room for a fade of the morning gains.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: No major semiconductor-specific catalysts for the remaining session; residual flows tied to AI chip demand and broader market reaction to yields remain the primary near-term drivers. Leverage decay and daily rebalancing effects amplify any sector moves.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: A decisive break below the recent $116-$117 support cluster on rising volume would invalidate the mild short-term bias and open a retest of the $110-$112 area. Conversely, a sustained push through $120-$122 would strengthen the rebound case beyond the mild bullish stance.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: Confidence is low at 38% because the one-day horizon for a 3x leveraged ETF is dominated by noise and compounding effects, quote dispersion is present, and no high-conviction catalyst is present to override the mixed technical recovery picture.
Other models on the same question
| Model | Expected range | Confidence | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 Sol | $111.50 to $126.50 | 57% | Direction called correctly | 73.4 |
| Claude Opus 5 | $105.00 to $125.90 | 40% | Direction called incorrectly | 5.0 |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | $112.00 to $125.00 | 54% | No directional call | 44.3 |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | $112.00 to $126.00 | 60% | Direction called correctly | 73.2 |
| DeepSeek V3 | $135.50 to $145.50 | 60% | Direction called incorrectly | 4.4 |
How this forecast is measured
Sends only the baseline price and the output format; your AI researches the asset itself. Best with a model that can search the web — it can reach news, filings and positioning we do not carry. Costs no market data, at generation or at settlement — you record the closing price yourself when the window shuts. The monthly allowance is what a membership buys, not a data bill.
Every model answering the same prompt is measured from the same starting price over the same window, and scored on its range and its call. How scoring works · All shared research.
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