SOXL 1-day forecast by Muse Spark 1.1
Muse Spark 1.1's 1-day forecast for SOXL, made 2026-09-18: expected range $112.00 to $125.00 at 54% confidence. Settled at $136.29: no directional call, score 44.3.
| Asset | SOXL |
|---|---|
| Model | Muse Spark 1.1 |
| Recorded by | Forecastnest |
| Forecast made | |
| Horizon | 1-day (Equity / ETF 1D: the stored target below is authoritative; it may be a session close or an intraday instant.) |
| Window closes | |
| Price when asked | $118.47 |
| Price the model reported | $118.56 |
| Expected range | $112.00 to $125.00 |
| Confidence | 54% |
| Prompt style | No data |
| Status | Settled |
| Actual close | $136.29 |
| Traded range in the window | $116.68 to $137.12 |
| Result | No directional call |
| Score | 44.3 of 100 |
The model's reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: Finnhub reports SOXL Current $118.56 Open $117.03 High $119.7088 Low $116.86 Previous Close $114.82 Change +3.74 +3.2573% Sep 18. 5-day +11.07% 1-month -18.21% 6-month +133.75% YTD +182.08% 1-year +304.64% 10-year +4352% beta 5.93. Barchart shows SOXL $140.25 +5.99% with SOXX $543.27 +2.02% and MRVL $218.72 +3.89% INTC $101.65 +1.84% same day. Webull last week $142.80 to $144.95 high $154.12 low $130 vol 244M. Motley Fool notes SOXL down 15% through 12:10 when holdings red.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: Strong rebound post-hike. SOXL +3.25% Sep 18 vs NVDA flat $219.19 and MSFT $491.54 -1.25%. Beta 5.93 triple semis. 5-day +11% shows momentum returning after -18% month. BTC $80,600 +4.73% and SPY $762.57 +1.1% Sep 17 support risk-on. Semis leading as yields stabilize.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Anchored to $118.56 live Sep 18. Using day range $116.86-$119.70 and previous close $114.82. Beta 5.93 implies daily ~7% ~$8. Lower $112 -5.5% toward $114.82 previous and $104.36 Motley Fool low if profit taking, upper $125 +5.4% toward $125.87 FinancialContent and $140.25 Barchart captures extension. Slight upside skew due to +3.25% momentum and +11% 5-day.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: Window Sep 18 14:55 UTC 24h covers quad witching close. No SOXL-specific earnings but Micron MU $993.5 +1.6% Sep 18 per Finnhub and NVDA news drive. SOXS bear $43.64 per OKX Sep 18 15:10 UTC+8 counterpart.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: Bear case: hawkish Warsh guiding more hikes 2-year 4.348% could push SOXL back to $114.82 or $112 if semis fade triple. Bull case: dovish hold and MU strength could squeeze to $125. Invalidation: close below $110 or above $128 would negate mild bullish.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: Confidence 54% reflects live price $118.56 dated Sep 18 after baseline with high $119.70 low $116.86 open $117.03 same day and corroborating Barchart $140.25 +5.99% same day, but 3x leverage noisy. Labeling live because quote is same-day after window start.
Other models on the same question
| Model | Expected range | Confidence | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 Sol | $111.50 to $126.50 | 57% | Direction called correctly | 73.4 |
| Claude Opus 5 | $105.00 to $125.90 | 40% | Direction called incorrectly | 5.0 |
| Grok 4.5 | $112.00 to $125.00 | 38% | Direction called incorrectly | 10.3 |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | $112.00 to $126.00 | 60% | Direction called correctly | 73.2 |
| DeepSeek V3 | $135.50 to $145.50 | 60% | Direction called incorrectly | 4.4 |
How this forecast is measured
Sends only the baseline price and the output format; your AI researches the asset itself. Best with a model that can search the web — it can reach news, filings and positioning we do not carry. Costs no market data, at generation or at settlement — you record the closing price yourself when the window shuts. The monthly allowance is what a membership buys, not a data bill.
Every model answering the same prompt is measured from the same starting price over the same window, and scored on its range and its call. How scoring works · All shared research.
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