SOXL 1-day forecast by Muse Spark 1.1
Muse Spark 1.1's 1-day forecast for SOXL, made 2026-09-16: expected range $102.00 to $114.00 at 52% confidence. Settled at $114.09: direction called incorrectly, score 10.5.
| Asset | SOXL |
|---|---|
| Model | Muse Spark 1.1 |
| Recorded by | Forecastnest |
| Forecast made | |
| Horizon | 1-day (Equity / ETF 1D: the stored target below is authoritative; it may be a session close or an intraday instant.) |
| Window closes | |
| Price when asked | $108.32 |
| Price the model reported | $108.28 |
| Expected range | $102.00 to $114.00 |
| Confidence | 52% |
| Prompt style | No data |
| Status | Settled |
| Actual close | $114.09 |
| Traded range in the window | $101.06 to $115.48 |
| Result | Direction called incorrectly |
| Score | 10.5 of 100 |
The model's reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: Finnhub reports SOXL Current Price $108.2799 Open $107.44 High $108.93 Low $106.25 Previous Close $102.32 Change +5.9599 +5.8248% Sep 16. Bybit tokenized reports Sep 16 trading at $106.61 low $101.09 high $107.54 volume $5.72K. FT.com price $102.32 as of Sep 15 21:00 BST. Marketbeat notes $102.32 now +143.4% increase. TradingView reports $105.91 USD -6.10% 24h and MXN listing down -6.36%. Cerbat Gem Sep 16 notes shares traded down -14.6% Monday.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: Rebound regime Fed Day. SOXL +5.82% Sep 16 after -14.6% Monday and -16.98% Sep 15 early signal per StockMarketLoop. Beta 5.93 per Finnhub high sensitivity. Morningstar Sep 16 reports stock futures rose and oil edged lower ahead of Fed with 91% hike odds per LSEG, cautious optimism heralds Fed Day. TalkMarkets Sep 16 8:50 AM EDT S&P 500 futures test critical levels ahead of expected 25bp hike. SOXL benefits if hike already priced and semis get relief.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Anchored to $108.28 Finnhub live. Using day range $106.25-$108.93 and previous close $102.32 low $101.09 tokenized. Implied vol high for 3x; 30-day IV 105.9% per ApexVol Sep 15. Expected daily move ~5-6% = $5-6. Lower $102 near previous close $102.32 and tokenized low $101.09 captures retrace if hawkish Warsh remarks, upper $114 captures +5.3% extension toward $108.93 high plus bounce. Slight upside skew because +5.82% momentum and futures up pre-decision.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: Window Sep 16 14:25 UTC 24h covers FOMC decision 2pm ET Sep 16 and press conference per ActionNetwork and Morningstar. Also includes Sep 17 open post-Fed reaction. No SOXL-specific earnings, but NVDA/AMD holdings and SOXX index moves will drive 3x. Oil paring gains reduces inflation fear for chips.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: Bear case: hawkish hike with Warsh guiding further tightening could push SOXL back toward $102 low as high-beta semis triple losses, as Motley Fool noted SOXL down 15% when top holdings red. Bull case: dovish hold could squeeze toward $114+. Invalidation: close below $101 tokenized low or above $115 would negate mild bullish.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: Confidence 52% reflects live price $108.2799 dated Sep 16 after baseline with corroborating $106.61 tokenized, but 3x leveraged ETF with 105.9% IV is extremely noisy on Fed Day. Labeling live because quote is same day after window start.
Other models on the same question
| Model | Expected range | Confidence | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Opus 5 | $88.70 to $112.70 | 44% | Direction called incorrectly | 1.9 |
| DeepSeek V3 | $96.50 to $108.00 | 40% | Direction called correctly | 11.1 |
| GPT-6 | $97.00 to $117.00 | 54% | Direction called incorrectly | 31.2 |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | $95.00 to $118.00 | 60% | Direction called incorrectly | 31.5 |
How this forecast is measured
Sends only the baseline price and the output format; your AI researches the asset itself. Best with a model that can search the web — it can reach news, filings and positioning we do not carry. Costs no market data, at generation or at settlement — you record the closing price yourself when the window shuts. The monthly allowance is what a membership buys, not a data bill.
Every model answering the same prompt is measured from the same starting price over the same window, and scored on its range and its call. How scoring works · All shared research.
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