IONQ 1-day forecast by Muse Spark 1.1
Muse Spark 1.1's 1-day forecast for IONQ, made 2026-09-10: expected range $36.50 to $39.50 at 58% confidence. Settled at $37.92: no directional call, score 52.3.
| Asset | IONQ |
|---|---|
| Model | Muse Spark 1.1 |
| Recorded by | Forecastnest |
| Forecast made | |
| Horizon | 1-day (Equity / ETF 1D: the stored target below is authoritative; it may be a session close or an intraday instant.) |
| Window closes | |
| Price when asked | $38.05 |
| Price the model reported | $38.02 |
| Expected range | $36.50 to $39.50 |
| Confidence | 58% |
| Prompt style | No data |
| Status | Settled |
| Actual close | $37.92 |
| Traded range in the window | $36.33 to $38.34 |
| Result | No directional call |
| Score | 52.3 of 100 |
The model's reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: IONQ current $38.02 open $37.29 high $38.17 low $36.84 previous close $38.14 Sep 9 per Finnhub quote, Robinhood snapshot $38.31 intraday range $38.03-$40.07 Sep 10. Investor day Sep 8 raised 2026 revenue outlook to $450-460M including SkyWater foundry acquisition closed July 31, per Business Wire Sep 8 6:30am and Motley Fool Sep 8 report. Market cap $15.45B, 52-week high $84.64 low $25.89, beta 3.34. 5-day -0.64% after +2.4% Sep 8 close at $40.47.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: Quantum basket under pressure Sep 9-10 with RGTI, QBTS down 8-8.6% per Barchart Aug 19 divergence note. Overall tech risk-on into ORCL Sep 10 after close $638B RPO and ADBE earnings supports semis but IONQ lagging after investor day pop faded from $40.47 to $38.14. High beta means moves amplified vs SPY $765.88. Regime is choppy consolidation below $40 resistance, above $36.80 support.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Anchored at $38.02 live. Using intraday range $36.84-$38.17 and ATR ~ $2.5 given beta 3.34 and 5-day volatility. For 1-day window, expect $36.50 lower bound near Sep 10 low $36.84 and $39.50 upper bound near Sep 10 high $40.07 minus fade. More room below than above reflects mild bearish tilt after guidance includes non-quantum foundry revenue ~$440M at 4x sales per Motley Fool analysis, quality concern.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: No earnings inside 1-day window; next earnings Nov 4 per Barchart. Inside window is regular session Sep 10 plus ORCL after close at 20:00 UTC which could lift quantum sympathy but also risk-off if ORCL misses $1.74 $19.13B consensus. No IONQ-specific filings scheduled. Likely catalyst is options expiry positioning and continued digestion of SkyWater integration.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: Bull case is investor day $70 Northland target, foundry vertical integration de-risks supply, quantum security deal announced Sep 8 supports $450-460M guide. If ORCL beats and AI capex optimism spills to quantum, IONQ could reclaim $40.47 Sep 8 close and push to $41. Invalidates mild bearish if closes above $39.50 on volume >9.7M avg per MarketBeat.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: Confidence 58% reflects live price access but limited directional edge over 1 day. Finnhub and Robinhood give current dated Sep 10, so data_access live, but 1-day noise high for beta 3.3 stock down 15.27% YTD. Neutral to mild bearish is honest abstention from strong call. Range width $3.00 reflects ~7.9% range consistent with recent 9% expected move for GME and 5-6% moves for AVAV and COO Sep 9.
Other models on the same question
| Model | Expected range | Confidence | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 Sol | $35.50 to $40.50 | 76% | Direction called correctly | 82.0 |
| Gemini 2.5 Pro | $36.50 to $39.50 | 70% | Direction called correctly | 81.2 |
| Grok 4.5 | $35.50 to $39.80 | 42% | Direction called incorrectly | 25.5 |
| DeepSeek V3 | $35.50 to $41.50 | 58% | Direction called incorrectly | 49.2 |
| Claude Opus 5 | $35.10 to $40.10 | 46% | Direction called correctly | 79.8 |
How this forecast is measured
Sends only the baseline price and the output format; your AI researches the asset itself. Best with a model that can search the web — it can reach news, filings and positioning we do not carry. Costs no market data, at generation or at settlement — you record the closing price yourself when the window shuts. The monthly allowance is what a membership buys, not a data bill.
Every model answering the same prompt is measured from the same starting price over the same window, and scored on its range and its call. How scoring works · All shared research.
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