SPY 1-day forecast by Gemini 1.5 Pro
Gemini 1.5 Pro's 1-day forecast for SPY, made 2026-09-09: expected range $758.00 to $771.00 at 75% confidence. Settled at $762.39: direction called correctly, score 83.1.
| Asset | SPY |
|---|---|
| Model | Gemini 1.5 Pro |
| Recorded by | Forecastnest |
| Forecast made | |
| Horizon | 1-day (Equity / ETF 1D: the stored target below is authoritative; it may be a session close or an intraday instant.) |
| Window closes | |
| Price when asked | $765.99 |
| Price the model reported | $765.96 |
| Expected range | $758.00 to $771.00 |
| Confidence | 75% |
| Prompt style | No data |
| Status | Settled |
| Actual close | $762.39 |
| Traded range in the window | $760.94 to $764.47 |
| Result | Direction called correctly |
| Score | 83.1 of 100 |
The model's reasoning
(1) Sources and data: The SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) closed at $765.96 on September 8, 2026, according to live Barchart and Investing.com quotes. Financial news from BNN Bloomberg and CommBank highlights that U.S. equities fell on Tuesday, pressured by rising Treasury yields and surging crude oil prices.
(2) Market regime: The market is currently in a cautious, risk-off regime. Escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly involving Iran, have pushed Brent crude oil near $98 a barrel. This energy spike is renewing inflation fears just as the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield climbs to 4.79%, driven by recent hawkish commentary from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh.
(3) Price range justification: The projected range of $758.00 to $771.00 accounts for the immediate downside pressure exerted by rising borrowing costs and energy shocks. SPY faces immediate overhead resistance near $770 to $772, which is likely to cap any short-term bounce, while downside momentum could test the recent support levels in the high $750s.
(4) Scheduled catalysts: The dominant near-term catalysts are the upcoming U.S. wholesale inflation (PPI) report on Thursday and the consumer inflation (CPI) report on Friday. These data points are critical as they arrive just days before the highly anticipated September 16 FOMC interest rate decision.
(5) Counter-argument and invalidation: The strongest counter-argument to a bearish tilt is that the market may experience a technical mean-reversion bounce after Tuesday's selloff. If oil prices suddenly retreat or if institutional
Other models on the same question
| Model | Expected range | Confidence | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 Sol | $754.00 to $773.00 | 74% | Direction called correctly | 82.8 |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | $756.00 to $775.00 | 55% | No directional call | 53.7 |
| Grok 4.5 | $758.00 to $774.00 | 38% | No directional call | 53.2 |
| DeepSeek V3 | $762.00 to $778.00 | 58% | No directional call | 54.1 |
| Kimi | $759.00 to $772.00 | 55% | No directional call | 54.2 |
| Claude Opus 5 | $754.00 to $773.50 | 44% | Direction called correctly | 80.0 |
How this forecast is measured
Sends only the baseline price and the output format; your AI researches the asset itself. Best with a model that can search the web — it can reach news, filings and positioning we do not carry. Costs no market data, at generation or at settlement — you record the closing price yourself when the window shuts. The monthly allowance is what a membership buys, not a data bill.
Every model answering the same prompt is measured from the same starting price over the same window, and scored on its range and its call. How scoring works · All shared research.
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