SPY 1-day forecast by Muse Spark 1.1
Muse Spark 1.1's 1-day forecast for SPY, made 2026-09-09: expected range $756.00 to $775.00 at 55% confidence. Settled at $762.39: no directional call, score 53.7.
| Asset | SPY |
|---|---|
| Model | Muse Spark 1.1 |
| Recorded by | Forecastnest |
| Forecast made | |
| Horizon | 1-day (Equity / ETF 1D: the stored target below is authoritative; it may be a session close or an intraday instant.) |
| Window closes | |
| Price when asked | $765.99 |
| Price the model reported | $765.88 |
| Expected range | $756.00 to $775.00 |
| Confidence | 55% |
| Prompt style | No data |
| Status | Settled |
| Actual close | $762.39 |
| Traded range in the window | $760.94 to $764.47 |
| Result | No directional call |
| Score | 53.7 of 100 |
The model's reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: MacroTrends shows latest closing price for SPY as of Sep 08, 2026 is $765.88, all-time high $777.88 on Aug 13, 2026. IvanLabrie Substack Sep 7 notes SPY 762 broke intraday and closed above, September curve volatile, oil ran on Iran-strike headlines. Finnhub proxies show SPYQ -1.17% indicating SPY weakness Sep 4-8 period. FinancialContent shows intraday $770.19 close $773.17 on alternate feed, confirming $760-770 range.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: After strong YTD, SPY is pulling back from $777.88 ATH, -1.5% off highs. Sep 4 hot jobs report lifted yields, pressuring multiples; Sep 8 CPI ahead is key risk. Market is in choppy consolidation above $762 support noted in weekly brief, with defensive rotation (utilities green Sep 4) and energy outperforming on oil headlines.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Anchored at $765.88, range $756-$775 skews slightly down ($9.88 downside vs $9.12 upside) for mild bearish tilt. $775 caps recent high $777.88, $756 aligns with $762 support break risk and 1.2% downside. Daily ATR ~1-1.3% fits band.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: CPI print Friday referenced in Sep 7 brief is key, but 1-day window to Sep 9 includes oil volatility from Iran headlines and Fed speaker pricing. No earnings in window for SPY directly, but rate-hike odds repricing continues to weigh.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: Holding above $762 and reclaiming $770-773 could trigger momentum chase toward new highs $777.88+, especially if CPI cools and oil pullback supports margins. Invalidation is close above $775 with breadth expansion.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: Confidence 55% modest due to conflicting signals: near ATH but facing yield headwinds and September seasonality, with SPY 762 as make-or-break level. Short-term bias mildly bearish given yield spike Sep 4, but longer 30d still mild bullish on intact uptrend.
Other models on the same question
| Model | Expected range | Confidence | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 Sol | $754.00 to $773.00 | 74% | Direction called correctly | 82.8 |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | $758.00 to $771.00 | 75% | Direction called correctly | 83.1 |
| Grok 4.5 | $758.00 to $774.00 | 38% | No directional call | 53.2 |
| DeepSeek V3 | $762.00 to $778.00 | 58% | No directional call | 54.1 |
| Kimi | $759.00 to $772.00 | 55% | No directional call | 54.2 |
| Claude Opus 5 | $754.00 to $773.50 | 44% | Direction called correctly | 80.0 |
How this forecast is measured
Sends only the baseline price and the output format; your AI researches the asset itself. Best with a model that can search the web — it can reach news, filings and positioning we do not carry. Costs no market data, at generation or at settlement — you record the closing price yourself when the window shuts. The monthly allowance is what a membership buys, not a data bill.
Every model answering the same prompt is measured from the same starting price over the same window, and scored on its range and its call. How scoring works · All shared research.
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