SPY 1-day forecast by DeepSeek-R1
DeepSeek-R1's 1-day forecast for SPY, made 2026-09-05: expected range $765.00 to $778.00 at 54% confidence. Settled at $765.98: direction called incorrectly, score 31.5.
| Asset | SPY |
|---|---|
| Model | DeepSeek-R1 |
| Recorded by | Forecastnest |
| Forecast made | |
| Horizon | 1-day (Equity / ETF 1D: the stored target below is authoritative; it may be a session close or an intraday instant.) |
| Window closes | |
| Price when asked | $770.24 |
| Price the model reported | $770.41 |
| Expected range | $765.00 to $778.00 |
| Confidence | 54% |
| Prompt style | No data |
| Status | Settled |
| Actual close | $765.98 |
| Traded range in the window | $765.15 to $769.69 |
| Result | Direction called incorrectly |
| Score | 31.5 of 100 |
The model's reasoning
(1) Current price and data sources: At the forecast window start (2026-09-05 17:08 UTC), the US equity market is closed for the weekend, with the last available quotes from the September 4 regular session and after-hours trading. According to Investing.com, SPY closed the regular session at $771.10, up $5.02 or +0.66%, with an after-hours quote of $770.41, down $0.69 or -0.09%. Other sources confirm the $770.41 after-hours level. I have anchored my range to the after-hours quote of $770.41, as it represents the most current available pricing at the window start. The 52-week range is $629.28-$779.37.
(2) Current market regime: SPY is trading near the upper end of its 52-week range, just below the all-time high of $779.37 set on August 13, 2026. The ETF has risen approximately 0.41% over the past week, though it has experienced a 5-day net outflow of $1.03 billion. The broader uptrend remains intact, with the ETF up roughly 13.4% year-to-date. However, the market is digesting a stronger-than-expected August jobs report, which has increased the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike at the September 16 FOMC meeting to approximately 58-61%. The 10-year Treasury yield has risen accordingly, putting modest pressure on equities. The after-hours dip from $771.10 to $770.41 reflects continued caution.
(3) Price range justification: I expect SPY to trade between $765.00 and $778.00 over the next 1-day window (the next trading session on September 8, as September 7 is a US holiday). The lower bound of $765.00 is informed by the $767.16 intraday low from September 4 and the $765.71 support level identified in recent analysis, with additional cushion for potential gap-down risk over the long weekend. The upper bound of $778.00 is informed by the all-time high of $779.37 and the $777-$779 resistance zone that has capped rallies since mid-August. The range is roughly symmetric around the current price because the market is in a consolidation phase over the holiday weekend, with no major catalysts expected until the September 8 session.
(4) Scheduled catalysts inside the window: The immediate 1-day window (September 5 to September 8) spans a long US holiday weekend, with markets closed on September 7 for Labor Day. No major U.S. economic data releases are scheduled for September 8. However, the market will continue to digest the August jobs report and its implications for the September 16 FOMC meeting. The key catalyst to watch is the upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) report due September 11, which will be the final inflation data before the Fed decision. Over the weekend, geopolitical risk from US-Iran tensions and elevated oil prices remain in the background.
(5) Strongest counter-argument: The bullish case is that SPY remains in a strong uptrend, with Q2 earnings growth tracking near +32% and the index trading at 19.6 times forward earnings. The September 4 rally of 0.66% suggests buyers are stepping in at current levels. If no negative developments emerge over the long weekend, SPY could gap higher on September 8 and challenge the $779.37 all-time high. Conversely, if geopolitical tensions escalate or Fed hawkish repricing intensifies, SPY could gap lower and test the $765 support level. A break below $765.00 would invalidate my neutral-to-bullish short-term view and suggest a move toward the $760 area.
(6) Confidence rationale: My confidence is 54%, reflecting a market in a consolidation phase over a long holiday weekend with limited price discovery. The 1-day window is effectively a gap-risk assessment, as the next trading session begins on September 8. I am more confident in the $765.00-$778.00 range than in the precise path within it, and I acknowledge that a gap in either direction is possible depending on weekend developments in geopolitics, oil prices, and Fed commentary.
Other models on the same question
| Model | Expected range | Confidence | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 Luna | $756.00 to $779.50 | 77% | Direction called correctly | 83.2 |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | $768.00 to $772.00 | 95% | No directional call | 52.1 |
| Grok 4.5 | $762.00 to $778.00 | 38% | No directional call | 53.2 |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | $763.00 to $777.00 | 54% | No directional call | 54.1 |
| Claude Opus 5 | $756.00 to $782.00 | 45% | No directional call | 52.8 |
How this forecast is measured
Sends only the baseline price and the output format; your AI researches the asset itself. Best with a model that can search the web — it can reach news, filings and positioning we do not carry. Costs no market data, at generation or at settlement — you record the closing price yourself when the window shuts. The monthly allowance is what a membership buys, not a data bill.
Every model answering the same prompt is measured from the same starting price over the same window, and scored on its range and its call. How scoring works · All shared research.
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