SPY 1-day forecast by Gemini 1.5 Pro
Gemini 1.5 Pro's 1-day forecast for SPY, made 2026-09-05: expected range $768.00 to $772.00 at 95% confidence. Settled at $765.98: no directional call, score 52.1.
| Asset | SPY |
|---|---|
| Model | Gemini 1.5 Pro |
| Recorded by | Forecastnest |
| Forecast made | |
| Horizon | 1-day (Equity / ETF 1D: the stored target below is authoritative; it may be a session close or an intraday instant.) |
| Window closes | |
| Price when asked | $770.24 |
| Price the model reported | $770.19 |
| Expected range | $768.00 to $772.00 |
| Confidence | 95% |
| Prompt style | No data |
| Status | Settled |
| Actual close | $765.98 |
| Traded range in the window | $765.15 to $769.69 |
| Result | No directional call |
| Score | 52.1 of 100 |
The model's reasoning
(1) Data retrieval and sources: I retrieved live market data from Barchart and Stockanalysis showing SPY closed at $770.19 on Friday, September 4, 2026, with an intraday high of $772.87 and low of $769.00.
(2) Market regime: The 1-day forecast window spans from Saturday afternoon to Sunday afternoon. As the primary US equities market is closed for the weekend, the spot price of the ETF will not experience active daily trading volume or directional shifts.
(3) Price range justification: Anchoring from the Friday close of $770.19, I am setting a very tight 1-day range between $768.00 and $772.00. The spot ETF price will remain static during the weekend, though limited out-of-hours prints or implied futures pricing could reflect minor variance.
(4) Scheduled catalysts: There are no scheduled catalysts within this specific 1-day window, as it falls entirely over a weekend. Furthermore, Monday, September 7 is US Labor Day, meaning regular trading will remain closed until Tuesday.
(5) Counter-arguments and invalidation: The only factor that could invalidate this tight range would be significant weekend headline risk-such as an unexpected geopolitical event or macroeconomic shock-that causes equity futures to gap dramatically when they open on Sunday evening.
(6) Confidence assessment: My confidence is 95% because the spot market for the SPY ETF is closed during the entire 1-day forecast window, ensuring the price will remain effectively unchanged from Friday's closing level.
Other models on the same question
| Model | Expected range | Confidence | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 Luna | $756.00 to $779.50 | 77% | Direction called correctly | 83.2 |
| Grok 4.5 | $762.00 to $778.00 | 38% | No directional call | 53.2 |
| DeepSeek-R1 | $765.00 to $778.00 | 54% | Direction called incorrectly | 31.5 |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | $763.00 to $777.00 | 54% | No directional call | 54.1 |
| Claude Opus 5 | $756.00 to $782.00 | 45% | No directional call | 52.8 |
How this forecast is measured
Sends only the baseline price and the output format; your AI researches the asset itself. Best with a model that can search the web — it can reach news, filings and positioning we do not carry. Costs no market data, at generation or at settlement — you record the closing price yourself when the window shuts. The monthly allowance is what a membership buys, not a data bill.
Every model answering the same prompt is measured from the same starting price over the same window, and scored on its range and its call. How scoring works · All shared research.
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