SOXL 1-day forecast by Grok 4.5
Grok 4.5's 1-day forecast for SOXL, made 2026-09-05: expected range $105.00 to $130.00 at 38% confidence. Settled at $123.37: direction called correctly, score 77.9.
| Asset | SOXL |
|---|---|
| Model | Grok 4.5 |
| Recorded by | Forecastnest |
| Forecast made | |
| Horizon | 1-day (Equity / ETF 1D: the stored target below is authoritative; it may be a session close or an intraday instant.) |
| Window closes | |
| Price when asked | $117.52 |
| Price the model reported | $117.28 |
| Expected range | $105.00 to $130.00 |
| Confidence | 38% |
| Prompt style | No data |
| Status | Settled |
| Actual close | $123.37 |
| Traded range in the window | $121.60 to $127.54 |
| Result | Direction called correctly |
| Score | 77.9 of 100 |
The model's reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: Friday 4 Sep 2026 close was $117.28 (up 9.87% from Thursday’s $106.74), day range $109.73-$118.18, volume ~63M, per MarketWatch, ChartExchange, Motley Fool, Robinhood and Stock Alarm Pro. After-hours held near $116.61-$116.86. Prior closes: 3 Sep $106.74, 2 Sep $106.35.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: Sharp rebound session for the 3x leveraged semiconductor ETF, reversing recent weakness with a near-10% gain. Elevated intraday volatility remains characteristic of the product’s extreme leverage and sensitivity to semiconductor moves.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Anchored to the $117.28 Friday close. Recent daily ranges of $8-15+ and 3x leverage imply potential 1-day moves of 8-12% or more. Lower bound near $105 allows for partial giveback of the rebound; upper bound near $130 covers extension of the strong session. Range is modestly wider on the upside reflecting momentum.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: Markets closed over the weekend; Monday session will reflect any overnight global or sector developments. No major semiconductor-specific events dominate the immediate next session.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: A sharp reversal or risk-off open could push SOXL below $105; continued risk appetite could drive a break above $130. Sustained trade outside the stated range on volume would overturn the mild bullish lean.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: Live Friday close is confirmed and the session was strongly positive, yet 3x leveraged ETFs produce large path-dependent noise on single-day horizons; residual volatility and weekend gap risk keep conviction moderate-to-low.
Other models on the same question
| Model | Expected range | Confidence | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 Luna | $108.00 to $126.50 | 77% | Direction called correctly | 81.9 |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | $110.50 to $123.00 | 55% | Direction called correctly | 71.0 |
| DeepSeek-R1 | $115.00 to $140.00 | 50% | Direction called incorrectly | 3.5 |
| Claude Opus 5 | $106.00 to $125.50 | 43% | Direction called incorrectly | 30.8 |
How this forecast is measured
Sends only the baseline price and the output format; your AI researches the asset itself. Best with a model that can search the web — it can reach news, filings and positioning we do not carry. Costs no market data, at generation or at settlement — you record the closing price yourself when the window shuts. The monthly allowance is what a membership buys, not a data bill.
Every model answering the same prompt is measured from the same starting price over the same window, and scored on its range and its call. How scoring works · All shared research.
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