SOXL 1-day forecast by Gemini 1.5 Pro
Gemini 1.5 Pro's 1-day forecast for SOXL, made 2026-09-05: expected range $110.50 to $123.00 at 55% confidence. Settled at $123.37: direction called correctly, score 71.0.
| Asset | SOXL |
|---|---|
| Model | Gemini 1.5 Pro |
| Recorded by | Forecastnest |
| Forecast made | |
| Horizon | 1-day (Equity / ETF 1D: the stored target below is authoritative; it may be a session close or an intraday instant.) |
| Window closes | |
| Price when asked | $117.52 |
| Price the model reported | $116.20 |
| Expected range | $110.50 to $123.00 |
| Confidence | 55% |
| Prompt style | No data |
| Status | Settled |
| Actual close | $123.37 |
| Traded range in the window | $121.60 to $127.54 |
| Result | Direction called correctly |
| Score | 71.0 of 100 |
The model's reasoning
(1) Data retrieval and sources: I retrieved live historical price data indicating that SOXL closed at $116.20 on Friday, September 4, 2026, showing significant intra-day volatility with a low of $109.73 and a high of $117.86.
(2) Market regime: The asset is a 3X leveraged ETF, meaning its price action amplifies the underlying ICE Semiconductor Index. The recent historical data shows severe chop, with the ETF recovering from sub-$100 levels in late July but remaining highly sensitive to macroeconomic data and tech sector sentiment.
(3) Price range justification: Anchoring from the $116.20 close, I am placing the 1-day range between $110.50 and $123.00. Given the 3X leverage, a daily move of 5% to 6% is standard, and this range accommodates typical intraday swings without assuming a severe directional breakout.
(4) Scheduled catalysts: With the Friday non-farm payrolls data fully absorbed into the September 4 close, the primary driver for the next trading session will be weekend macro developments, foreign market opens on Monday, and any emergent news surrounding major semiconductor holdings like Nvidia or AMD.
(5) Counter-arguments and invalidation: The strongest counter-argument to a mild bullish drift is the inherent decay and compounding risk of a leveraged ETF in a choppy market. Any negative fundamental news for the tech sector over the weekend would quickly invalidate the call and push the asset below the $110 support level.
(6) Confidence assessment: My confidence is 55% because forecasting a 3X leveraged product over a single day is inherently precarious; its outsized exposure to gap opens and rapid technical reversals makes precision difficult.
Other models on the same question
| Model | Expected range | Confidence | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 Luna | $108.00 to $126.50 | 77% | Direction called correctly | 81.9 |
| Grok 4.5 | $105.00 to $130.00 | 38% | Direction called correctly | 77.9 |
| DeepSeek-R1 | $115.00 to $140.00 | 50% | Direction called incorrectly | 3.5 |
| Claude Opus 5 | $106.00 to $125.50 | 43% | Direction called incorrectly | 30.8 |
How this forecast is measured
Sends only the baseline price and the output format; your AI researches the asset itself. Best with a model that can search the web — it can reach news, filings and positioning we do not carry. Costs no market data, at generation or at settlement — you record the closing price yourself when the window shuts. The monthly allowance is what a membership buys, not a data bill.
Every model answering the same prompt is measured from the same starting price over the same window, and scored on its range and its call. How scoring works · All shared research.
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