SOXL 1-day forecast by Grok 4.5
Grok 4.5's 1-day forecast for SOXL, made 2026-09-04: expected range $97.00 to $117.00 at 38% confidence. Settled at $117.52: direction called correctly, score 77.6.
| Asset | SOXL |
|---|---|
| Model | Grok 4.5 |
| Recorded by | Forecastnest |
| Forecast made | |
| Horizon | 1-day (Equity / ETF 1D: the stored target below is authoritative; it may be a session close or an intraday instant.) |
| Window closes | |
| Price when asked | $106.82 |
| Price the model reported | $106.74 |
| Expected range | $97.00 to $117.00 |
| Confidence | 38% |
| Prompt style | No data |
| Status | Settled |
| Actual close | $117.52 |
| Traded range in the window | $109.75 to $118.18 |
| Result | Direction called correctly |
| Score | 77.6 of 100 |
The model's reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: Thursday 3 Sep 2026 close was $106.74 (up 0.37% from Wednesday’s $106.35), day range $98.62-$107.49, volume ~54-55M, per FT.com, MarketWatch, Schwab, ChartExchange and Investing.com. After-hours held near $106.35-$106.51. Prior closes: 2 Sep $106.35, 1 Sep $105.91.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: Modest positive close for the 3x leveraged semiconductor ETF amid a broader market rebound. Intraday volatility remained elevated with a wide range, consistent with the product’s high beta and recent swings in the semiconductor complex.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Anchored to the $106.74 Thursday close. Recent daily ranges of $6-15+ and extreme 3x leverage imply potential 1-day moves of 8-12% or more. Lower bound near $97 allows for a retest of the session low area; upper bound near $117 covers a stronger continuation. Range is modestly wider on the downside given residual sector pressure.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: No major semiconductor-specific events for Friday 4 Sep. Broader market follow-through from Thursday’s rebound and any overnight geopolitical or rate-related news remain the primary drivers for this high-beta product.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: Renewed risk-off pressure in tech/semis could push SOXL below $97; stronger risk appetite could drive a break above $117. Sustained trade outside the stated range on volume would overturn the mild bullish lean.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: Live Thursday close is confirmed, yet 3x leveraged ETFs produce large path-dependent noise on single-day horizons; absence of stock-specific catalysts and recent sharp swings keep conviction moderate-to-low.
Other models on the same question
| Model | Expected range | Confidence | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 Luna | $96.00 to $114.50 | 76% | Direction called incorrectly | 11.2 |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | $96.00 to $118.00 | 60% | Direction called correctly | 80.2 |
| DeepSeek-R1 | $98.00 to $115.00 | 45% | Direction called incorrectly | 10.3 |
| Claude Opus 5 | $95.00 to $117.00 | 42% | Direction called incorrectly | 10.7 |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | $96.00 to $118.00 | 60% | Direction called correctly | 80.2 |
| Claude Sonnet 5 | $97.50 to $116.50 | 39% | Direction called correctly | 77.5 |
| GPT-5.6 Luna | $96.00 to $114.50 | 76% | Direction called incorrectly | 11.2 |
How this forecast is measured
Sends only the baseline price and the output format; your AI researches the asset itself. Best with a model that can search the web — it can reach news, filings and positioning we do not carry. Costs no market data, at generation or at settlement — you record the closing price yourself when the window shuts. The monthly allowance is what a membership buys, not a data bill.
Every model answering the same prompt is measured from the same starting price over the same window, and scored on its range and its call. How scoring works · All shared research.
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