SPY 1-day forecast by Grok 4.5
Grok 4.5's 1-day forecast for SPY, made 2026-09-03: expected range $758.00 to $772.00 at 42% confidence. Settled at $773.12: no directional call, score 52.6.
| Asset | SPY |
|---|---|
| Model | Grok 4.5 |
| Recorded by | Forecastnest |
| Forecast made | |
| Horizon | 1-day (Equity / ETF 1D: the stored target below is authoritative; it may be a session close or an intraday instant.) |
| Window closes | |
| Price when asked | $765.14 |
| Price the model reported | $765.16 |
| Expected range | $758.00 to $772.00 |
| Confidence | 42% |
| Prompt style | No data |
| Status | Settled |
| Actual close | $773.12 |
| Traded range in the window | $767.46 to $774.03 |
| Result | No directional call |
| Score | 52.6 of 100 |
The model's reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: Wednesday 2 Sep 2026 close was $765.16 (up 0.44% from Tuesday’s $761.78), day range $761.73-$766.43, volume ~29.5M, per CNBC, Investing.com, TradeSmith, Motley Fool and Robinhood. After-hours held near $765.20-$765.40. Prior closes: 1 Sep $761.78, 31 Aug $767.05.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: Modest rebound session after Tuesday’s decline. SPY recovered roughly half of the prior day’s loss amid reports of cooling rate-hike odds and a pause in Treasury selloff pressure. Broader risk appetite improved slightly; no major data surprises drove the move.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Anchored to the $765.16 Wednesday close. Recent daily ranges of $4-7 and typical ATR near $6 support a 1-day window of roughly ±1%. Lower bound near $758 allows for a retest of Tuesday’s lows; upper bound near $772 covers a continuation toward the prior week’s levels around $767-$769. Range is roughly balanced given the mild rebound.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: No major U.S. economic releases typically scheduled for Thursday 3 Sep that would dominate the broad market. Residual follow-through from the Wednesday rebound and any overnight geopolitical or rate-related developments remain the primary potential drivers.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: Renewed risk-off pressure or weaker global cues could push SPY below $758; stronger-than-expected risk appetite could drive a break above $772. Sustained trade outside the stated range would overturn the mild bullish lean.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: Live Wednesday close is confirmed and the session direction is clear, yet single-day forecasts remain noise-dominated in the absence of high-impact scheduled data; residual macro uncertainty keeps conviction moderate.
Other models on the same question
| Model | Expected range | Confidence | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 Luna | $757.00 to $771.50 | 68% | Direction called incorrectly | 11.4 |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | $758.00 to $771.50 | 60% | No directional call | 53.0 |
| DeepSeek-R1 | $758.00 to $780.00 | 58% | Direction called incorrectly | 30.9 |
| Claude Opus 5 | $756.00 to $773.50 | 45% | No directional call | 53.4 |
How this forecast is measured
Sends only the baseline price and the output format; your AI researches the asset itself. Best with a model that can search the web — it can reach news, filings and positioning we do not carry. Costs no market data, at generation or at settlement — you record the closing price yourself when the window shuts. The monthly allowance is what a membership buys, not a data bill.
Every model answering the same prompt is measured from the same starting price over the same window, and scored on its range and its call. How scoring works · All shared research.
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