SPY 1-day forecast by Gemini 1.5 Pro
Gemini 1.5 Pro's 1-day forecast for SPY, made 2026-09-03: expected range $758.00 to $771.50 at 60% confidence. Settled at $773.12: no directional call, score 53.0.
| Asset | SPY |
|---|---|
| Model | Gemini 1.5 Pro |
| Recorded by | Forecastnest |
| Forecast made | |
| Horizon | 1-day (Equity / ETF 1D: the stored target below is authoritative; it may be a session close or an intraday instant.) |
| Window closes | |
| Price when asked | $765.14 |
| Price the model reported | $765.16 |
| Expected range | $758.00 to $771.50 |
| Confidence | 60% |
| Prompt style | No data |
| Status | Settled |
| Actual close | $773.12 |
| Traded range in the window | $767.46 to $774.03 |
| Result | No directional call |
| Score | 53.0 of 100 |
The model's reasoning
(1) Data sourced from Google Finance and Dow Jones Market Data confirms SPY closed at $765.16 on Wednesday, September 2, 2026. The broader S&P 500 index rallied 0.46% to 7,666.60, successfully snapping a three-day losing streak despite a significant miss in ADP private payrolls (38,000 jobs added versus the 47,000 estimate).
(2) The current market regime is highly conflicted, caught between AI-driven tech resilience and mounting stagflationary pressures. Escalating US-Iran hostilities have pushed Brent crude above $95 per barrel, dragging the 10-year Treasury yield toward 4.80%. This creates a difficult environment for equities as Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh remains focused on inflation, limiting the prospect of rate cuts despite a visibly slowing labor market.
(3) The price range of $758.00-$771.50 brackets current levels with a standard 1% daily implied volatility. The downside boundary targets the recent structural support base established during the early-week selloff near $759-$760. The upside accommodates a continuation of Wednesday's relief bounce toward the $771 resistance zone.
(4) Inside this 24-hour window, price action will be heavily influenced by Thursday's weekly initial jobless claims and ISM Services data. However, the overarching theme will be positioning ahead of Friday's critical Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which typically subdues aggressive directional betting.
(5) The strongest counter-argument to a neutral, range-bound session is the potential for a severe macroeconomic shock. If Thursday's jobless claims spike dramatically, it could amplify the weakness seen in the ADP report, reigniting acute recession fears and sparking a swift liquidation that breaks the $758 support.
(6) My confidence is 60%. While the macroeconomic backdrop is distinctly heavy, institutional volume often dries up and markets tend to chop sideways in the 24 hours immediately preceding a major Friday employment report, reducing the probability of a decisive trend day.
Other models on the same question
| Model | Expected range | Confidence | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 Luna | $757.00 to $771.50 | 68% | Direction called incorrectly | 11.4 |
| Grok 4.5 | $758.00 to $772.00 | 42% | No directional call | 52.6 |
| DeepSeek-R1 | $758.00 to $780.00 | 58% | Direction called incorrectly | 30.9 |
| Claude Opus 5 | $756.00 to $773.50 | 45% | No directional call | 53.4 |
How this forecast is measured
Sends only the baseline price and the output format; your AI researches the asset itself. Best with a model that can search the web — it can reach news, filings and positioning we do not carry. Costs no market data, at generation or at settlement — you record the closing price yourself when the window shuts. The monthly allowance is what a membership buys, not a data bill.
Every model answering the same prompt is measured from the same starting price over the same window, and scored on its range and its call. How scoring works · All shared research.
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