IONQ 1-day forecast by DeepSeek V3
DeepSeek V3's 1-day forecast for IONQ, made 2026-09-01: expected range $36.00 to $44.00 at 50% confidence. Settled at $37.79: direction called incorrectly, score 31.6.
| Asset | IONQ |
|---|---|
| Model | DeepSeek V3 |
| Recorded by | Forecastnest |
| Forecast made | |
| Horizon | 1-day (Equity / ETF 1D: the stored target below is authoritative; it may be a session close or an intraday instant.) |
| Window closes | |
| Price when asked | $39.27 |
| Price the model reported | $39.31 |
| Expected range | $36.00 to $44.00 |
| Confidence | 50% |
| Prompt style | No data |
| Status | Settled |
| Actual close | $37.79 |
| Traded range in the window | $37.59 to $39.25 |
| Result | Direction called incorrectly |
| Score | 31.6 of 100 |
The model's reasoning
(1) What I found, and where: Current price sourced from Yahoo Finance real-time data as of 2026-09-01 02:36 UTC (based on Aug 31 close and overnight trading): $39.31, up +0.11 (+0.28%) from the prior close of $39.20. The day's range on Aug 31 was $38.43-$40.55. eToro shows the same $39.20 close with a -7.68% one-day decline. The stock is down approximately -12.76% over the past week. 52-week range is $25.89-$84.64. Beta is elevated at 2.98-3.30. Analyst consensus is a Strong Buy with a projected level of $65.63-$67.68, with 44 of 52 analysts rating it a Buy.
(2) Current market regime as I read it: IonQ is in a post-earnings digestion phase following its record Q2 2026 results on Aug 5, where revenue surged 287% YoY to $80.1M. The company raised full-year guidance to $280-290M. However, the stock has since retraced sharply, with a 7.7% drop on Aug 28 as investors questioned the ~46x NTM revenue valuation and the $3B vertical integration strategy (SkyWater acquisition closed July 31). The stock currently sits below its 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages, with a key resistance level at the Ichimoku Kijun line of $39.88. Short-term technicals show a bearish daily structure but Stoch RSI is in oversold territory, suggesting limited downside.
(3) Price range justification: Upper bound $44.00 - this sits above the Aug 31 high of $40.55 and approaches the Aug 21 high of $42.04 (from prior analysis). A break above the $39.88 resistance would signal renewed buying interest. Lower bound $36.00 - this is below the Aug 31 low of $38.43 and represents a ~8.4% decline from current levels, which is consistent with the stock's elevated beta (3.0) and recent daily volatility. The range is slightly asymmetric: more room above ($4.69) than below ($3.31), reflecting the mild bullish 1-day view given the oversold conditions and upcoming Investor Day catalyst on Sept 8.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: Tuesday Sept 1 has no specific IonQ-dedicated catalysts. However, the broader quantum computing sector could be influenced by any macro tech news. The key near-term catalyst is IonQ's Investor Day on Sept 8 at the NYSE, where management will provide major updates. That event is outside the 1-day window but may generate anticipatory positioning. The next earnings date is estimated for Nov 4, 2026. No SEC filings or government contract announcements are due in the next 24 hours.
(5) Strongest counter-argument and what would invalidate: The strongest counter-argument is that the stock's sharp decline from its 52-week high of $84.64 reflects genuine concerns about valuation (~46x NTM revenue) and heavy cash burn (negative ~$515M FCF forecast for 2026). If institutional selling resumes and the stock breaks below the Aug 31 low of $38.43, the mild bullish 1-day view would be invalidated, potentially sending the stock toward the $36.00 bound. Conversely, if the stock closes above $39.88 (the Kijun resistance), it would confirm buyer acceptance and support the bullish case.
(6) Why confidence is 50%: This is a 1-day forecast for a high-beta (3.0), volatile quantum computing stock with no immediate catalyst. The oversold technical condition (Stoch RSI oversold) provides a modest bullish tilt, but the stock remains below key moving averages with a bearish daily structure. The upcoming Investor Day on Sept 8 could create some early positioning, but that is a week away. The 50% confidence reflects the genuine balance: the stock could easily rebound on dip-buying given oversold conditions, or continue its downward drift given valuation concerns. I am not confident enough to call it BULLISH, hence MILD BULLISH for the 1-day signal, with neutral readings on shorter timeframes where noise dominates.
Other models on the same question
| Model | Expected range | Confidence | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 Luna | $37.00 to $41.50 | 68% | No directional call | 52.3 |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | $37.80 to $41.10 | 65% | Direction called incorrectly | 10.8 |
| Grok 4.5 | $37.00 to $43.50 | 40% | Direction called incorrectly | 15.9 |
| Claude Opus 5 | $36.00 to $42.20 | 43% | Direction called correctly | 78.8 |
How this forecast is measured
Sends only the baseline price and the output format; your AI researches the asset itself. Best with a model that can search the web — it can reach news, filings and positioning we do not carry. Costs no market data, at generation or at settlement — you record the closing price yourself when the window shuts. The monthly allowance is what a membership buys, not a data bill.
Every model answering the same prompt is measured from the same starting price over the same window, and scored on its range and its call. How scoring works · All shared research.
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