IONQ 1-day forecast by DeepSeek V3
DeepSeek V3's 1-day forecast for IONQ, made 2026-08-31: expected range $35.50 to $43.50 at 58% confidence. Settled at $39.28: direction called correctly, score 80.1.
| Asset | IONQ |
|---|---|
| Model | DeepSeek V3 |
| Recorded by | Forecastnest |
| Forecast made | |
| Horizon | 1-day (Equity / ETF 1D: the stored target below is authoritative; it may be a session close or an intraday instant.) |
| Window closes | |
| Price when asked | $39.18 |
| Price the model reported | $39.35 |
| Expected range | $35.50 to $43.50 |
| Confidence | 58% |
| Prompt style | No data |
| Status | Settled |
| Actual close | $39.28 |
| Traded range in the window | $38.43 to $40.55 |
| Result | Direction called correctly |
| Score | 80.1 of 100 |
The model's reasoning
(1) What I found, and where: Current price sourced from Robinhood real-time quote as of 2026-08-30 trading session: $39.35, with intraday high $42.04 and low $38.64 on volume of 20.11M vs average 16.03M. Motley Fool shows last close $39.20 from Aug 28. After-hours Aug 28 traded $39.39. Yahoo Finance overnight session shows $38.67. All sources converge on $39.20-$39.40 as the anchor, with Aug 30 session trading around $39.35.
(2) Current market regime as I read it: IonQ is in a post-earnings digestion phase after a sharp 287% YoY revenue beat ($80.1M vs $65.4M est) on Aug 5, followed by a +23% one-month run from $31.99 to recent highs. The stock then retraced 7.7% on Aug 28 to $39.20 as investors weighed the $3B vertical integration bet (SkyWater acquisition closed July 31) against a ~46x NTM revenue valuation. Short interest stands at 12.4-12.7% of float, creating potential squeeze dynamics but also reflecting skepticism. RSI is neutral around 48-54, suggesting no extreme overbought/oversold condition. Beta of 2.72-2.75 indicates high volatility.
(3) Price range justification: Upper bound $43.50 - just above the Aug 30 intraday high of $42.04 and below the $44.86 one-week-ago price; a reclaim of $42 would signal dip-buyers returning. Lower bound $35.50 - below the Aug 30 intraday low of $38.64 and approaching the $38 support level noted by technical analysts; a break below $38 could trigger additional technical selling toward $35.50 (the 52-week low is $25.89, but $35.50 represents a 10% drawdown from current, consistent with recent daily volatility). I am using a 1-day realized volatility estimate of ~8-10% based on the $38.64-$42.04 range and beta, which implies a $35.50-$43.50 band around $39.35. This is not symmetric: more room below ($3.85) than above ($4.15), reflecting my mild bearish 1-day view.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: No major catalysts scheduled for Aug 31 specifically. The next known event is Investor Day on Sept 8, which is outside the 1-day window. However, the proximity to that event may create some anticipatory positioning. The Quantum World Congress runs Sept 23-25, also outside the window. No earnings or SEC filings are due in the next 24 hours (next earnings estimated Nov 4).
(5) Strongest counter-argument and what would invalidate: The strongest counter-argument is that the Aug 28 7.7% drop was an overreaction to valuation concerns, and the fundamental story - 287% revenue growth, raised guidance to $280-290M, $485M RPO backlog, $2B pro-forma cash - remains intact. If buyers step in at $38.64 (the Aug 30 low) and the stock holds above $40, my bearish 1-day view would be invalidated. Conversely, if news emerges about the SkyWater integration hitting delays or if broader tech selling resumes, the downside could extend below $35.50.
(6) Why confidence is 58%: This is a 1-day forecast in a high-beta (2.75) stock with no clear catalyst in the window. The post-earnings digestion and valuation debate create competing forces: bulls point to revenue growth and backlog, bears point to valuation and cash burn. The neutral RSI and recent price action suggest consolidation, not a clear directional breakout. 58% reflects modest confidence in mild downside given the recent 7.7% drop and valuation scrutiny, but acknowledges that a 1-day move is largely noise and could easily flip on any headline. I am not confident enough to call it BEARISH (which would require >65% conviction), hence MILD BEARISH for the 1-day signal.
Other models on the same question
| Model | Expected range | Confidence | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Opus 5 | $35.80 to $42.10 | 40% | Direction called incorrectly | 49.2 |
| GPT-5.6 Luna | $37.00 to $42.50 | 63% | Direction called correctly | 81.2 |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | $37.50 to $40.80 | 55% | Direction called incorrectly | 30.3 |
| Grok 4.5 | $36.50 to $42.50 | 42% | Direction called correctly | 79.0 |
How this forecast is measured
Sends only the baseline price and the output format; your AI researches the asset itself. Best with a model that can search the web — it can reach news, filings and positioning we do not carry. Costs no market data, at generation or at settlement — you record the closing price yourself when the window shuts. The monthly allowance is what a membership buys, not a data bill.
Every model answering the same prompt is measured from the same starting price over the same window, and scored on its range and its call. How scoring works · All shared research.
ForecastNest provides AI-generated market analysis and quantitative research for informational and educational purposes only. Nothing here constitutes financial, investment, legal, or tax advice.