IONQ 7-day forecast by Gemini 1.5 Pro
Gemini 1.5 Pro's 7-day forecast for IONQ, made 2026-08-29: expected range $33.50 to $42.50 at 60% confidence. Settled at $40.46: direction called incorrectly, score 32.3.
| Asset | IONQ |
|---|---|
| Model | Gemini 1.5 Pro |
| Recorded by | Forecastnest |
| Forecast made | |
| Horizon | 7-day (Existing Mode 1 horizon rules apply; the stored expiry is authoritative.) |
| Window closes | |
| Price when asked | $39.18 |
| Expected range | $33.50 to $42.50 |
| Confidence | 60% |
| Prompt style | No data |
| Status | Settled |
| Actual close | $40.46 |
| Traded range in the window | $36.79 to $44.42 |
| Result | Direction called incorrectly |
| Score | 32.3 of 100 |
The model's reasoning
(1) What I found, and where: Using live search data from August 28-29, 2026, IONQ closed Friday at the $39.20 baseline, falling 7.7% for the day (GuruFocus). Despite a blowout Q2 earnings report on August 5 showing 287% YoY revenue growth to $80.1M and raised full-year guidance (Business Wire), the stock has been sliding due to sector weakness and a share-supply overhang from its recent SkyWater Technology acquisition (Quiver Quantitative).
(2) The current market regime as you read it: The stock is in a highly volatile, short-term bearish pullback regime. Despite exceptional top-line fundamental growth, the market is severely punishing the stock due to dilution fears, massive GAAP net losses associated with M&A, and broader macroeconomic de-risking in high-beta tech.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Measuring from the $39.20 baseline, I am using a 7-day range of $33.50 to $42.50. IONQ is exceptionally volatile, easily capable of 10-15% weekly swings (as evidenced by its recent 7.7% single-day drop). The range is skewed to the downside to respect the immediate negative momentum and supply overhang, while allowing room for a technical bounce.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: With earnings in the rearview mirror, the next 7 days will be driven by broader market sentiment, early September macroeconomic data, and any potential follow-up announcements regarding their new vertical integration with SkyWater or defense contracts (such as their recent MoU with Anduril).
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: The strongest counter-argument to the bearish skew is IONQ's astonishing 287% revenue growth and raised guidance. If institutional buyers decide the recent selloff has created an oversold value opportunity, dip-buying could easily overwhelm the supply overhang, sparking a rapid reversal that pushes the stock back above $44.00.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: My confidence is 60%. While the technical trend and supply overhang clearly favor the downside over a short 7-day window, forecasting a hyper-growth, high-beta quantum computing stock is inherently noisy, as a single press release about a new government contract can instantly reverse the trend.
Other models on the same question
| Model | Expected range | Confidence | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Opus 5 | $32.20 to $44.70 | 48% | Direction called incorrectly | 31.1 |
| Grok 4.5 | $34.50 to $44.00 | 28% | Direction called correctly | 76.9 |
| DeepSeek V3 | $36.50 to $45.00 | 55% | Direction called correctly | 82.0 |
| GPT-5.6 Luna | $31.00 to $46.00 | 72% | Direction called incorrectly | 30.9 |
How this forecast is measured
Sends only the baseline price and the output format; your AI researches the asset itself. Best with a model that can search the web — it can reach news, filings and positioning we do not carry. Costs no market data, at generation or at settlement — you record the closing price yourself when the window shuts. The monthly allowance is what a membership buys, not a data bill.
Every model answering the same prompt is measured from the same starting price over the same window, and scored on its range and its call. How scoring works · All shared research.
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