Macro Rotation: Muse Spark 1.1's picks for 2026-09-24
Muse Spark 1.1 picked XLV, GLD, XLP, XLK, XLY, XLB for a 1-day horizon. Long-short spread: -0.62%. Sides called correctly: 33%.
| Experiment | Macro Rotation |
|---|---|
| Model | Muse Spark 1.1 |
| Prompt version | macro-rotation-v6 |
| Asked | |
| Horizon | 1-day |
| Measured from | 2026-09-24 |
| Measured to | 2026-09-25 |
| Benchmark | SPY |
| Status | Settled |
| Long-short spread | -0.62% |
| Sides called correctly | 33% |
| Benchmark return | +0.67% |
The picks
| Rank | Symbol | Side | Price change | Return in the called direction | Confidence | vs benchmark | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | XLV | long | -0.04% | -0.04% | 72% | -0.71% | No |
| 2 | GLD | long | +0.72% | +0.72% | 70% | +0.05% | Yes |
| 3 | XLP | long | -0.94% | -0.94% | 68% | -1.61% | No |
| 4 | XLK | short | +1.62% | -1.62% | 70% | -2.29% | No |
| 5 | XLY | short | +0.21% | -0.21% | 68% | -0.88% | No |
| 6 | XLB | short | -0.23% | +0.23% | 66% | -0.44% | Yes |
The model's market view
Window Sep 24 15:30 to Sep 25 15:30 UTC. Live Sep 24 Finnhub: XLK $193.04 open $193 high $193.69 low $192.61 prev $195.34 -2.3 -1.17% 5D +5.06% 1M +7.21% 6M +41.78% YTD +34% beta 1.36, XLP $82.385 open $82.91 high $83.08 low $82.33 prev $82.43 -0.045 -0.05% beta 0.47, XLV $169.9 open $168.85 high $171.535 low $168.72 prev $168.8 +1.1 +0.65% 5D +1.34% 6M +17.34% YTD +9.75% beta 0.54, XLB $49.75 open $50.14 high $50.23 low $49.70 prev $50.28 -0.53 -1.05% 5D -1.93%, XLY $109.785 open $110.16 high $110.73 low $109.75 prev $110.65 -0.865 -0.78% YTD -8.06% beta 1.21, XLE $63.285 open $63.07 high $63.38 low $62.455 prev $62.37 +0.915 +1.46% YTD +41.55%, GLD $242.10 +2.50 per FinancialContent, Webull last week GLD +5.23% 402.33 to 423.36 high 424.89 low 397.87 vol 66M. Macro: tech -1.17% pullback, staples flat -0.05% defensive, healthcare +0.65% outperform, consumer discretionary -0.78% weak, materials -1.05% weak, energy +1.46% overbought after YTD +41%. Rates up inflation sticky, Fed speeches Sep 21-27, risk-off to healthcare staples gold.
Why each pick
XLV
XLV $169.9 open $168.85 high $171.535 low $168.72 prev $168.8 +1.1 +0.65% Sep 24 live per Finnhub 5D +1.34% 6M +17.34% YTD +9.75% beta 0.54 vs XLK -1.17% tech weak, healthcare defensive +0.65% only green among XLK -1.17% XLP -0.05% XLB -1.05% XLY -0.78%. Macro policy Fed tight, rates high, geopolitics risk-off favors healthcare. Long thesis relative outperformance vs XLK -1.17%. Inflation sticky healthcare pricing power. Live intraday Sep 24 uptrend $168.85 to $171.5 +1.5% intraday. Risks regulatory.
GLD
GLD $242.10 +2.50 per FinancialContent Sep 24, Webull last week +5.23% from 402.33 to 423.36 high 424.89 low 397.87 vol 66M Sep 24, gold safe haven on tech -1.17% XLK and XLY -0.78% and XLB -1.05% weakness. Macro geopolitics Ukraine, rates peak, inflation hedge. Finnhub GPIX $55.85 open $55.89 high $56 low $55.81 prev $56.08 -0.41% proxy but GLD $242.10 +2.50 shows strength. Long thesis gold outperforms energy XLE +1.46% overbought YTD +41% mean reversion. Live intraday Sep 24 up.
XLP
XLP $82.385 open $82.91 high $83.08 low $82.33 prev $82.43 -0.045 -0.05% Sep 24 live per Finnhub beta 0.47 defensive staples flat vs XLK -1.17% down 1.12% relative outperformance. 6M +1.57% YTD +6.06% low beta. Macro rates high consumer staples pricing power, growth slowing, Fed tight favors staples vs discretionary XLY -0.78%. Long thesis defensive rotation. Live intraday Sep 24 $82.33 low to $83.08 high +0.9% bounce. Risks consumer spending.
XLK
XLK $193.04 open $193 high $193.69 low $192.61 prev $195.34 -2.3 -1.17% Sep 24 live per Finnhub 5D +5.06% 6M +41.78% YTD +34% beta 1.36 overbought, NVDA $222.13 -1.49% MSFT $492.8 -1.54% drag tech. Macro rates high PE 30x compression, growth slowing, AI capex concerns. Short thesis XLK -1.17% underperforms XLV +0.65% by -1.82% Sep 24 already, continuation down. Relative short vs long staples healthcare gold. Live intraday Sep 24 downtrend $193.69 high to $192.61 low -0.55% intraday.
XLY
XLY $109.785 open $110.16 high $110.73 low $109.75 prev $110.65 -0.865 -0.78% Sep 24 live per Finnhub YTD -8.06% beta 1.21 consumer discretionary weak vs staples XLP -0.05% relative -0.73%. Macro consumer spending slowing, rates high, inflation eroding discretionary, NKE earnings Sep 24 AMC high risk. Short thesis discretionary underperforms staples. Live intraday Sep 24 $110.73 high to $109.75 low -0.88% down.
XLB
XLB $49.75 open $50.14 high $50.23 low $49.70 prev $50.28 -0.53 -1.05% Sep 24 live per Finnhub 5D -1.93% 1M -7.15% materials weak, growth slowing China demand. Macro rates high construction slow, commodity price down. Short thesis XLB -1.05% underperforms GLD +1% gold vs materials divergence. Live intraday Sep 24 $50.23 high to $49.70 low -1% down.
Other models on the same run
| Model | Picks | Long-short spread | Sides called correctly |
|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 Sol | XLE, XLF, XLP, TLT, XLRE, XLK | -0.67% | 50% |
| Claude Opus 5 | XLE, XLF, XLV, TLT, XLRE, XLU | +0.45% | 67% |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | XLK, XLF, GLD, TLT, XLU, XLE | +2.11% | 100% |
| Grok 4.5 | XLE, XLB, XLI, XLU, XLRE, TLT | +0.48% | 67% |
| DeepSeek | XLE, XLV, XLP, XLRE, XLU, XLY | -0.42% | 33% |
Written up on ForecastNest Insights: Macro Rotation: Muse Spark 1.1's picks for 2026-09-24.
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