Macro Rotation: Grok 4's picks for 2026-09-28
Grok 4 picked XLK, XLE, XLI, TLT, IEF, XLRE for a 1-day horizon. Long-short spread: +0.00%. Sides called correctly: 67%.
| Experiment | Macro Rotation |
|---|---|
| Model | Grok 4 |
| Prompt version | macro-rotation-v6 |
| Asked | |
| Horizon | 1-day |
| Measured from | 2026-09-28 |
| Measured to | 2026-09-29 |
| Benchmark | SPY |
| Status | Settled |
| Long-short spread | +0.00% |
| Sides called correctly | 67% |
| Benchmark return | -0.28% |
The picks
| Rank | Symbol | Side | Price change | Return in the called direction | Confidence | vs benchmark | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | XLK | long | +0.49% | +0.49% | 68% | +0.77% | Yes |
| 2 | XLE | long | -1.23% | -1.23% | 62% | -0.96% | No |
| 3 | XLI | long | -0.11% | -0.11% | 60% | +0.17% | No |
| 4 | TLT | short | -0.37% | +0.37% | 72% | +0.65% | Yes |
| 5 | IEF | short | -0.09% | +0.09% | 65% | +0.37% | Yes |
| 6 | XLRE | short | -0.41% | +0.41% | 58% | +0.69% | Yes |
The model's market view
Fed remains hawkish after the mid-September hike to 3.75-4.00 percent with another hike likely by year-end as core PCE stays elevated near 3.4 percent while growth holds near trend on AI investment and resilient labor. Rising yields pressure duration and rate-sensitive sectors. Geopolitical residual risk keeps energy supported. One-session preference is growth and cyclicals over bonds and defensives amid still-solid earnings momentum and September volatility.
Why each pick
XLK
Technology continues to lead on AI infrastructure and earnings revisions well above market average. Relative strength versus rate-sensitive areas supports a long leg for the one-day window even with elevated multiples. Risk is a sharp yield spike or profit-taking after recent gains. Latest available regular-session close used as reference.
XLE
Energy benefits from still-elevated oil prices linked to residual Middle East risk and supportive demand. Sector has shown resilience while rates rise. Relative thesis favors cyclicals over duration. Risk is a sudden de-escalation or demand soft patch. Intraday quote near open used.
XLI
Industrials gain from ongoing AI-related capital expenditure, infrastructure and manufacturing strength. Positive relative to rate-sensitive and defensive sectors under a higher-for-longer policy path. Risk is broader risk-off or weaker orders data. Previous close used as latest reliable print.
TLT
Long-duration Treasuries remain vulnerable to further Fed tightening signals and sticky inflation. Rising yields have already pressured the ETF; another session of firm data or hawkish commentary extends the underperformance. Risk is a sudden flight-to-quality. Intraday quote used.
IEF
Intermediate Treasuries face the same higher-rate backdrop as the long end though with less duration. Policy path and inflation persistence keep the short attractive relative to equity cyclicals. Risk is a softer data surprise. Latest available close used.
XLRE
Real estate is highly rate-sensitive; higher yields and Fed hawkishness weigh on REITs. Relative underperformance versus growth and energy expected to persist in the short window. Risk is a sharp drop in yields. Previous close used.
Other models on the same run
| Model | Picks | Long-short spread | Sides called correctly |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | GLD, XLU, XLY, XLE, XLRE, TLT | +0.34% | 83% |
| Perplexity | XLK, XLI, GLD, XLE, XLF, TLT | +1.22% | 83% |
| Claude Opus 5.5 | XLE, GLD, TLT, XLRE, XLF, XLV | -0.83% | 33% |
| GPT-6 | XLE, TLT, XLP, XLK, XLV, XLY | -0.77% | 33% |
| DeepSeek | XLE, XLF, XLV, XLU, XLRE, GLD | -1.07% | 17% |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | XLE, XLK, XLI, TLT, XLU, XLRE | -0.14% | 50% |
Written up on ForecastNest Insights: Macro Rotation: Grok 4's picks for 2026-09-28.
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