Extreme Movers: Grok 4.5's picks for 2026-09-22
Grok 4.5 picked MRNA, AKAM, INTC, WBD, AMD for a 1-day horizon. Average directional return: -0.45%. Directions called correctly: 20%.
| Experiment | Extreme Movers |
|---|---|
| Model | Grok 4.5 |
| Prompt version | extreme-movers-v9 |
| Asked | |
| Horizon | 1-day |
| Measured from | 2026-09-22 |
| Measured to | 2026-09-23 |
| Benchmark | SPY |
| Status | Settled |
| Average directional return | -0.45% |
| Directions called correctly | 20% |
| Benchmark return | -0.52% |
The picks
| Rank | Symbol | Direction | Price change | Return in the called direction | Confidence | vs benchmark | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MRNA | up | +2.79% | +2.79% | 55% | +3.31% | Yes |
| 2 | AKAM | up | -2.61% | -2.61% | 52% | -2.08% | No |
| 3 | INTC | up | -1.70% | -1.70% | 50% | -1.18% | No |
| 4 | WBD | up | +0.00% | +0.00% | 48% | +0.52% | No |
| 5 | AMD | up | -0.73% | -0.73% | 47% | -0.20% | No |
The model's market view
Source session September 21 showed strong AI and biotech leadership with double-digit gains in semiconductors and media; follow-through or selective reversal is the focus for the next session amid ongoing sector momentum.
Why each pick
MRNA
Moderna closed September 21 up 12.27 percent on oncology pipeline news and ESMO abstract acceptance; current intraday quote near 180 shows continued strength. Hypothesis is continuation of the positive prior-session move. Catalyst is substantive clinical progress rather than pure speculation. Used delayed intraday quote.
AKAM
Akamai closed September 21 up 12.33 percent as a top S&P 500 gainer; current quote near 118 holds the prior gain. Hypothesis is continuation. Move appears driven by sector rotation into infrastructure software. Used delayed intraday quote.
INTC
Intel closed September 21 up approximately 12.1 percent on AI CPU demand commentary; current quote near 122 holds gains. Hypothesis is continuation of semiconductor strength. Catalyst is substantive demand narrative. Used delayed intraday quote.
WBD
Warner Bros Discovery closed September 21 up 10.79 percent after merger-related legal clearance; current quote near 30.80 is flat to slightly higher. Hypothesis is continuation. Catalyst is substantive deal progress. Used delayed intraday quote.
AMD
AMD closed September 21 up 9.95 percent and briefly exceeded 1 trillion market value on AI demand; current quote near 617 holds the advance. Hypothesis is continuation. Catalyst is substantive sector momentum. Used delayed intraday quote.
Other models on the same run
| Model | Picks | Average directional return | Directions called correctly |
|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 Sol | GRML, GLND, GRAL, CRML, CUE | +6.17% | 80% |
| Claude Opus 5 | META, NVDA, ACXP, INKT, TSLA | +0.68% | 80% |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | INDP, SWVL, BNC, CHPT, KPLT | +1.34% | 60% |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | WBD, INTC, AMD, NVO, HPQ | -0.18% | 40% |
| DeepSeek V3 | ARM, INTC, META, GRML, AMD | -3.54% | 40% |
Written up on ForecastNest Insights: Extreme Movers: Grok 4.5's picks for 2026-09-22.
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