Extreme Movers: Grok 4.5's picks for 2026-10-22
Grok 4.5 picked BHVN, TTMI, CRS, POOL, SPOT for a 1-day horizon. Average directional return: -1.34%. Directions called correctly: 60%.
| Experiment | Extreme Movers |
|---|---|
| Model | Grok 4.5 |
| Prompt version | extreme-movers-v11 |
| Asked | |
| Horizon | 1-day |
| Measured from | 2026-10-22 |
| Measured to | 2026-10-23 |
| Benchmark | SPY |
| Status | Settled |
| Average directional return | -1.34% |
| Directions called correctly | 60% |
| Benchmark return | -0.28% |
The picks
| Rank | Symbol | Direction | Price change | Return in the called direction | Confidence | vs benchmark | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BHVN | up | -5.17% | -5.17% | 62% | -4.89% | No |
| 2 | TTMI | down | +8.69% | -8.69% | 68% | -8.40% | No |
| 3 | CRS | down | -1.55% | +1.55% | 65% | +1.83% | Yes |
| 4 | POOL | up | +3.49% | +3.49% | 60% | +3.77% | Yes |
| 5 | SPOT | up | +2.10% | +2.10% | 64% | +2.38% | Yes |
The model's market view
US equities are mixed on October 22 2026 with the Nasdaq under pressure from semiconductor and AI-related names while selected earnings beats in consumer, industrials and biotech are driving large single-stock moves. Liquidity screens filter out most micro-cap percentage leaders, leaving a smaller set of liquid mid- and large-cap extreme movers whose catalysts appear earnings-driven rather than purely speculative.
Why each pick
BHVN
Biohaven is among the largest percentage gainers in the regular session with a roughly 25 percent advance on heavy volume after positive clinical or pipeline developments. Market-cap and 20-day dollar-volume floors are comfortably cleared. The move is substantive rather than speculative; continuation higher into the next session is the base case given the magnitude and liquidity of the buying. Reference price is a live intraday quote around 13:00-13:20 EDT; data are therefore current as of the prediction window.
TTMI
TTM Technologies is the standout liquid loser, down nearly 29 percent on the session after reporting results that the market interpreted negatively despite some beats. Market capitalization exceeds 7 billion and 20-day average dollar volume is well above the 20 million threshold. The sell-off is earnings-driven and therefore substantive; the base case is continuation lower on the next session as residual profit-taking and estimate revisions play out. Price is an intraday quote near the middle of the session.
CRS
Carpenter Technology fell more than 21 percent after its fiscal first-quarter release. Market cap remains above 14 billion and average daily dollar volume easily clears the liquidity screen. The reaction is substantive (earnings and guidance). Continuation of the decline is favored over an immediate reversal given the size of the gap and volume. Quote is contemporaneous intraday data from the source session.
POOL
Pool Corporation advanced roughly 10 percent on the session after reporting quarterly results that exceeded expectations. Market capitalization is approximately 6.8 billion and 20-day dollar volume is ample. The catalyst is substantive earnings; continuation of the upward move is the primary hypothesis. Reference price reflects a live mid-session quote.
SPOT
Spotify rose approximately 9 percent following its quarterly report that showed strong revenue and profitability metrics. Market cap exceeds 117 billion and average dollar volume is several hundred million, far above the threshold. The move is earnings-driven and substantive; the hypothesis is continuation higher in the subsequent session. Price is taken from an intraday quote near the prediction time.
Other models on the same run
| Model | Picks | Average directional return | Directions called correctly |
|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Opus 5.5 | SMCI, MSTR, T, CRL, NFLX | -2.33% | 20% |
| Gemini 3 Pro | BHVN, POOL, TTMI, CRS, KALU | -5.83% | 0% |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | BHVN, TTMI, MRNA, ALLE, POOL | +0.12% | 60% |
| GPT-6 | BE, SMCI, NFLX, CRL, DXCM | +2.45% | 60% |
| DeepSeek | SPOT, BHVN, LRCX, ATI, TER | +1.33% | 80% |
Written up on ForecastNest Insights: Extreme Movers: Grok 4.5's picks for 2026-10-22.
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