Extreme Movers: Grok 4.5's picks for 2026-10-05
Grok 4.5 picked MXL, PENG, TER, WDC, STX for a 1-day horizon. Average directional return: +2.47%. Directions called correctly: 60%.
| Experiment | Extreme Movers |
|---|---|
| Model | Grok 4.5 |
| Prompt version | extreme-movers-v11 |
| Asked | |
| Horizon | 1-day |
| Measured from | 2026-10-05 |
| Measured to | 2026-10-06 |
| Benchmark | SPY |
| Status | Settled |
| Average directional return | +2.47% |
| Directions called correctly | 60% |
| Benchmark return | +0.98% |
The picks
| Rank | Symbol | Direction | Price change | Return in the called direction | Confidence | vs benchmark | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MXL | up | +0.31% | +0.31% | 58% | -0.67% | Yes |
| 2 | PENG | up | -0.38% | -0.38% | 55% | -1.36% | No |
| 3 | TER | up | -2.06% | -2.06% | 57% | -3.04% | No |
| 4 | WDC | down | -6.49% | +6.49% | 54% | +5.51% | Yes |
| 5 | STX | down | -8.01% | +8.01% | 53% | +7.03% | Yes |
The model's market view
Friday's session featured broad semiconductor and storage-sector swings after soft payrolls data reduced near-term rate-hike odds. Extreme movers included chip-equipment and memory names with double-digit percentage moves on volume. The next session is expected to test whether those moves continue or reverse amid residual deal flow and light macro catalysts.
Why each pick
MXL
MaxLinear rose 15% on Friday amid semiconductor strength. Market-cap and volume filters are met. Continuation of the momentum is favored into the next session given sector tailwinds from AI-related demand commentary, though valuation expansion after the gap creates pullback risk. Reference price is the latest available Monday quote.
PENG
Penguin Solutions advanced 11.6% on Friday. Filters for price, market cap and dollar volume are satisfied. Continuation is expected on residual AI-hardware momentum, although the stock is already elevated and earnings are imminent. Reference price reflects the most recent available quote.
TER
Teradyne gained 8% on Friday within the semiconductor-equipment complex. Market-cap and liquidity thresholds are cleared. Continuation is favored on sector strength, with risk that profit-taking follows the large one-day move. Latest available price used for reference.
WDC
Western Digital fell 10.2% on Friday after industry capacity commentary. All size and liquidity filters pass. Continuation of the downside is expected as storage peers digest supply news, though a bounce risk exists after the sharp drop. Reference price is the latest Monday quote.
STX
Seagate declined 10.2% on Friday in tandem with Western Digital on hard-drive capacity concerns. Size and volume filters are met. Continuation lower is the base case while the sector digests the news, offset by the possibility of a technical rebound. Latest available price used.
Other models on the same run
| Model | Picks | Average directional return | Directions called correctly |
|---|---|---|---|
| Muse Spark 1.1 | TER, HPE, BE, ACLS, WOLF | -1.03% | 40% |
| GPT-5.6 Sol | WDC, STX, HPE, ON, STM | -4.14% | 0% |
| Claude Sonnet 5.5 | LW, PENG, RXO, MXL, CNXC | +2.63% | 40% |
| Perplexity | HPE, ON, TER, WDC, STX | -2.60% | 40% |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | RXO, STNE, PAGS, INTC, PCVX | -4.56% | 20% |
| DeepSeek | WDC, STX, NKE, ACN, MXL | -2.35% | 40% |
Written up on ForecastNest Insights: Extreme Movers: Grok 4.5's picks for 2026-10-05.
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