Extreme Movers: Muse Spark 1.1's picks for 2026-10-23
Muse Spark 1.1 picked POOL, ALLE, MRNA, TTMI, KALU for a 1-day horizon. Average directional return: +2.39%. Directions called correctly: 100%.
| Experiment | Extreme Movers |
|---|---|
| Model | Muse Spark 1.1 |
| Prompt version | extreme-movers-v11 |
| Asked | |
| Horizon | 1-day |
| Measured from | 2026-10-23 |
| Measured to | 2026-10-26 |
| Benchmark | SPY |
| Status | Settled |
| Average directional return | +2.39% |
| Directions called correctly | 100% |
| Benchmark return | +0.67% |
The picks
| Rank | Symbol | Direction | Price change | Return in the called direction | Confidence | vs benchmark | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | POOL | up | +1.14% | +1.14% | 75% | +0.47% | Yes |
| 2 | ALLE | up | +0.83% | +0.83% | 70% | +0.15% | Yes |
| 3 | MRNA | up | +0.94% | +0.94% | 60% | +0.27% | Yes |
| 4 | TTMI | up | +8.18% | +8.18% | 55% | +7.51% | Yes |
| 5 | KALU | down | -0.83% | +0.83% | 65% | +0.16% | Yes |
The model's market view
S&P 500 fell 1.2% while Dow steadied on Oct 23 2026 with AI hardware leading a 【entity-Nasdaq¦canonical_name=Nasdaq】 -2.6% rout. Despite broad tech weakness, earnings beats drove extreme upside outliers like POOL and ALLE, while earnings misses and a high-profile oncology data leak drove -17% to -27% collapses in MRNA, TTMI and KALU. Tape is bifurcated: substantive earnings catalysts rather than speculative squeezes, so continuation of earnings-driven trends is more likely than mean reversion, but oversold bounce risk is high for the deepest -25%+ losers.
Why each pick
POOL
Top 3 gainer Oct 23: +14.36% to 197.26 in market-wall gainer list (PSKY +41.46%, BHVN +25.19%, POOL +14.36%) . Substantive catalyst: Q3 EPS $3.40 beat consensus $3.36 by $0.04 and revenue $1.50B vs $1.48B est . Price used is intraday 194.83 from Finnhub Current Price 194.83 as of regular session Oct 23, stale <2 hours. Market cap 6.25B and avg daily traded value 179.41M USD meet $1B/$20M floors. Continuation up thesis: beat with maintained guidance triggered 2.74x relative volume. Risk: high valuation after +23% 5-day run.
ALLE
S&P 500 top gainer Oct 23 session: ALLE rose 9.75% as top gainer, while COHR fell 11.86% as steepest loser . Substantive catalyst: shares gapped up before open after better-than-expected earnings, stock previously closed at $159.00 but opened at $170.00 . Additional upgrade to Buy at BofA with target raised to $200. Price is latest regular 176.5 from Finnhub Current Price 176.5, intraday Oct 23. Market cap 13.35B and avg daily traded value 157.76M USD meet floors. Continuation up thesis: clean beat plus raised profit outlook tends to see follow-through. Risk: after +10% gap, intraday fade.
MRNA
Big loser Oct 23: -17.5% to 202.91 in biggest losers list including TTMI -27.64%, KALU -25.7%, MRNA -17.5% . Substantive catalyst: leaked Phase 3 INTerpath-001 data showed 42% risk reduction (vaccine cut risk by 42% but fell short of 49% Phase 2) . Shares tumbled 17.6% to $202.63 from prior $245.81 . Market cap 80.9B as of Oct 22 and avg traded value 1.14B USD meet floors. Reversal up thesis: 42% is statistically positive, sell-the-news overreaction after +657% 1-year run. Price used is intraday 198.76 from Finnhub Current Price 198.7614 on Oct 23, showing stabilization vs close. Risk: valuation still pricing $26B oncology sales needed for $200.
TTMI
Biggest loser Oct 23: TTMI -27.64% to 73.92 in losers list . Substantive but mixed catalyst: Q3 EPS $1.46 beating estimate $1.27 resulting in 14.23% surprise , yet management revealed supply chain wait times expanded to 24 weeks driving data center division 10% below targets . Stock fell hardest on AI-hardware break: TTMI -27.7% at close Oct 22 . Price used is intraday 76.995 Current Price 76.995 with Previous Close 73.89 showing +4.20% bounce on Oct 23 morning, indicating reversal attempt. Market cap 10.21B and avg traded value 299.15M USD meet floors, traded at $73.89 with market cap $7.78B and volume 17.45M shares confirming liquidity . Reversal up thesis: record quarter oversold, premarket +3.41% to $76.41 after earnings beat. Risk: 2027 revenue forecast below expectations keeps pressure.
KALU
Loser Oct 23: KALU -25.7% to 114.24 in losers list . Substantive catalyst: earnings miss by $0.48 (missed by $0.48) , reported $1.89 vs consensus $2.37 and gapped down prior to trading, stock previously closed at $153.95 but opened at $134.90 . Price used is intraday 108.23 Current Price 108.23 with Previous Close 114.99 showing continued selling Oct 23. Market cap 2.45B and avg daily traded value 34.39M USD meet floors. Continuation down thesis: margin compression (EBITDA margin drop 23.2% to 19.1%) and lowered packaging shipment guidance suggest follow-through selling. Risk: short-term bounce after -26.96% 5-day return.
Other models on the same run
| Model | Picks | Average directional return | Directions called correctly |
|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Sonnet 5.5 | FPS, COHR, MRNA, POOL, BHVN | -0.50% | 60% |
| GPT-6 | TTMI, ALLE, LRCX, BHVN, MRNA | +0.37% | 40% |
| Gemini 3 Pro | SPOT, MRNA, TTMI, KALU, CRS | -1.74% | 40% |
| Perplexity | LKQ, MRNA, CCI, AMT, SPOT | -1.37% | 20% |
| DeepSeek | LMT, BHVN, AEIS, CSGP, ATI | +0.92% | 60% |
Written up on ForecastNest Insights: Extreme Movers: Muse Spark 1.1's picks for 2026-10-23.
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