Extreme Movers: Grok 4.5's picks for 2026-09-24
Grok 4.5 picked CRWD, PLTR, EXPE, ABNB, PAYX for a 1-day horizon. Average directional return: +0.63%. Directions called correctly: 80%.
| Experiment | Extreme Movers |
|---|---|
| Model | Grok 4.5 |
| Prompt version | extreme-movers-v9 |
| Asked | |
| Horizon | 1-day |
| Measured from | 2026-09-24 |
| Measured to | 2026-09-25 |
| Benchmark | SPY |
| Status | Settled |
| Average directional return | +0.63% |
| Directions called correctly | 80% |
| Benchmark return | +0.67% |
The picks
| Rank | Symbol | Direction | Price change | Return in the called direction | Confidence | vs benchmark | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CRWD | up | -1.82% | -1.82% | 65% | -2.50% | No |
| 2 | PLTR | up | +0.57% | +0.57% | 62% | -0.10% | Yes |
| 3 | EXPE | up | +0.97% | +0.97% | 58% | +0.29% | Yes |
| 4 | ABNB | up | +1.78% | +1.78% | 57% | +1.10% | Yes |
| 5 | PAYX | down | -1.64% | +1.64% | 55% | +0.96% | Yes |
The model's market view
Source session September 23 saw broad equity weakness from rising Treasury yields and inflation concerns, with energy and select software outperforming while travel and payroll services lagged sharply. Next-session setup favors selective continuation in cybersecurity and AI software strength alongside potential mean-reversion in oversold travel names.
Why each pick
CRWD
CrowdStrike gained approximately 5% on September 23 amid cybersecurity and AI-security momentum, closing near a 52-week high. Continuation expected as sector leadership and relative strength persist into the next session despite broader market pressure. Latest intraday quote used; data from regular-session open on September 24.
PLTR
Palantir rose 3.68% on September 23 on continued AI-platform and commercial momentum, one of the stronger S&P software names. Continuation thesis rests on multi-day relative strength and elevated investor attention. Latest intraday quote from September 24 open used.
EXPE
Expedia fell 7.7% on September 23 as travel stocks led the downside amid yields and macro caution. Reversal higher expected on the next session as the move appears overdone relative to fundamentals and sector peers. Latest intraday quote used.
ABNB
Airbnb dropped 7.56% on September 23 in tandem with travel peers under rising-rate pressure. Reversal thesis based on sharp single-day decline creating oversold conditions for a bounce. Latest available quote near prior close with intraday context.
PAYX
Paychex declined 8.8% on September 23, the largest S&P 500 loser, after earnings-related pressure. Continuation lower expected given the magnitude of the move and residual selling. Latest intraday quote used.
Other models on the same run
| Model | Picks | Average directional return | Directions called correctly |
|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 Sol | BENF, WHLR, ARTL, JAGX, IPDN | -26.34% | 20% |
| Claude Opus 5 | IONQ, MCD, SECZ, AAON, DIS | +0.47% | 60% |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | GOOG, NVDA, SOXL, MSFT, IONQ | +2.73% | 80% |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | EXPE, PAYX, MU, NVDA, SMR | +0.93% | 80% |
| DeepSeek | BENF, SRZN, VSA, JAGX, BYND | -6.36% | 40% |
Written up on ForecastNest Insights: Extreme Movers: Grok 4.5's picks for 2026-09-24.
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