Extreme Movers: Grok 4's picks for 2026-09-21
Grok 4 picked COIN, SNDK, HOOD, NUE, QCOM for a 1-day horizon. Average directional return: +1.47%. Directions called correctly: 60%.
| Experiment | Extreme Movers |
|---|---|
| Model | Grok 4 |
| Prompt version | extreme-movers-v9 |
| Asked | |
| Horizon | 1-day |
| Measured from | 2026-09-21 |
| Measured to | 2026-09-22 |
| Benchmark | SPY |
| Status | Settled |
| Average directional return | +1.47% |
| Directions called correctly | 60% |
| Benchmark return | +0.28% |
The picks
| Rank | Symbol | Direction | Price change | Return in the called direction | Confidence | vs benchmark | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | COIN | up | -1.88% | -1.88% | 68% | -2.16% | No |
| 2 | SNDK | up | +5.87% | +5.87% | 65% | +5.59% | Yes |
| 3 | HOOD | up | +0.41% | +0.41% | 62% | +0.13% | Yes |
| 4 | NUE | up | -0.25% | -0.25% | 55% | -0.53% | No |
| 5 | QCOM | up | +3.21% | +3.21% | 58% | +2.93% | Yes |
The model's market view
US equities opened mixed on September 21 after a Friday session in which crypto-linked and semiconductor names led S&P 500 gainers while materials and certain semis lagged. Momentum in digital-asset proxies remains intact amid Bitcoin strength, while memory and steel names show mixed follow-through. Liquidity is adequate in large-cap names; catalyst quality ranges from sector beta to index inclusion effects.
Why each pick
COIN
Largest S&P 500 percentage gainer on September 18 (+11.66 percent) on crypto-sector strength and Bitcoin rebound. High volume confirmed institutional participation. Continuation hypothesis favored because the move aligned with sustained crypto momentum rather than a one-day speculative spike; latest intraday quote near 204-205 used (fresh as of mid-session September 21). Market-cap and price both well above exclusion thresholds.
SNDK
Second-largest S&P 500 gainer on September 18 (+10.99 percent) driven by semiconductor memory demand and S&P 100 inclusion effective September 21. Volume elevated. Continuation expected from index-flow support and sector beta rather than pure speculation; latest quote near 1776 used (intraday September 21, modestly softer than Friday close). Large market capitalization confirmed.
HOOD
Third-ranked S&P 500 gainer on September 18 (+9.12 percent) riding the same crypto and retail-trading wave as Coinbase. Substantial volume. Continuation favored given correlation to Bitcoin strength and absence of company-specific negative news; latest intraday price near 123-124 employed (September 21). Market cap exceeds 90 billion.
NUE
Largest S&P 500 percentage loser on September 18 (-6.32 percent) amid broader materials weakness and rising yields. No acute company-specific catalyst identified beyond sector rotation. Reversal hypothesis selected because the decline appears oversold relative to recent range and steel demand fundamentals remain intact; latest quote near 245 used (intraday September 21). Market capitalization approximately 56 billion.
QCOM
Second-largest S&P 500 loser on September 18 (-5.82 percent) on heavy volume after prior strength. Move coincided with broader semi rotation rather than a fundamental deterioration. Reversal hypothesized given elevated trading interest and subsequent rebound in related names; latest intraday quote near 185-191 used (September 21). Market cap exceeds 200 billion.
Other models on the same run
| Model | Picks | Average directional return | Directions called correctly |
|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 Sol | PAAI, XENE, IMCC, AEHL, TJGC | -4.72% | 60% |
| Claude Opus 5 | MSTR, COIN, MARA, XENE, SMR | +1.09% | 80% |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | INDP, BNAI, CLBT, PSO, ATOS | +0.91% | 40% |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | MSTR, MARA, COIN, XENE, SMR | +1.09% | 80% |
| DeepSeek V3 | CRML, PRTH, INTC, MSTR, NVO | -1.46% | 40% |
Written up on ForecastNest Insights: Extreme Movers: Grok 4's picks for 2026-09-21.
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