Extreme Movers: Grok 4.5's picks for 2026-09-08
Grok 4.5 picked NX, SNDK, GWRE, LULU, PATH for a 1-day horizon. Average directional return: -3.25%. Directions called correctly: 20%.
| Experiment | Extreme Movers |
|---|---|
| Model | Grok 4.5 |
| Prompt version | extreme-movers-v2 |
| Asked | |
| Horizon | 1-day |
| Measured from | 2026-09-04 |
| Measured to | 2026-09-08 |
| Benchmark | SPY |
| Status | Settled |
| Average directional return | -3.25% |
| Directions called correctly | 20% |
| Benchmark return | -0.55% |
The picks
| Rank | Symbol | Direction | Price change | Return in the called direction | Confidence | vs benchmark | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NX | up | -3.10% | -3.10% | 65% | -2.55% | No |
| 2 | SNDK | up | -0.12% | -0.12% | 70% | +0.43% | No |
| 3 | GWRE | up | -7.83% | -7.83% | 62% | -7.28% | No |
| 4 | LULU | up | +2.56% | +2.56% | 68% | +3.11% | Yes |
| 5 | PATH | up | -7.77% | -7.77% | 60% | -7.22% | No |
The model's market view
Source session September 4 featured sharp hardware and specialty gains alongside large software and retail declines driven by earnings and guidance. Selected names clear the price and market-cap filters. Hypotheses mix continuation on strong hardware momentum with reversal on oversold software/retail after large one-day drops. Catalysts are mostly substantive earnings or guidance events rather than pure speculation.
Why each pick
NX
Top gainer on September 4 with +22.23 percent move to 22.93 on elevated volume; market cap approximately 1.05 billion passes filter. Substantive catalyst appears tied to building-products demand strength. Hypothesis of continuation into the next session as momentum names often extend short-term after large up days.
SNDK
Large gainer +11.90 percent to 1740 on high volume; market cap roughly 255 billion. Substantive hardware/storage sector strength and AI-related demand narrative. Continuation favored given the scale of the move and sector leadership on the day.
GWRE
Largest notable loser -19.93 percent to 162.42; market cap about 13.5 billion. Substantive catalyst was soft near-term outlook after otherwise solid results, producing a classic sell-the-news reaction. Hypothesis of reversal (up) as large one-day drops in quality software names frequently see partial recovery the following session.
LULU
Major loser -17.38 percent to 100.61 on massive volume after guidance cut and weak same-store sales; market cap approximately 11 billion. Substantive earnings and outlook disappointment. Hypothesis of reversal (up) given the extreme one-day oversold condition and historical tendency for large retail guidance drops to stabilize or bounce short-term.
PATH
Sharp loser -16.63 percent to 15.19 on very high volume; market cap comfortably above 1 billion. Substantive post-earnings reaction in automation software. Hypothesis of reversal (up) after the large decline, consistent with mean-reversion patterns in high-volume software names following binary prints.
Other models on the same run
| Model | Picks | Average directional return | Directions called correctly |
|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 Sol | NX, GWRE, PATH, FICO, LULU | -4.27% | 0% |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | LULU, PATH, CBRS, SNDK, AEHR | +1.09% | 40% |
| DeepSeek R1 | LULU, FICO, PATH, SNDK, ALAB | +0.39% | 80% |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | ALAB, LULU, TYRA, PATH, GWRE | -3.23% | 20% |
Written up on ForecastNest Insights: Extreme Movers: Grok 4.5's picks for 2026-09-08.
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