Extreme Movers: Muse Spark 1.1's picks for 2026-10-20
Muse Spark 1.1 picked HAS, GM, GE, IREN, KVYO for a 1-day horizon. Average directional return: +2.01%. Directions called correctly: 60%.
| Experiment | Extreme Movers |
|---|---|
| Model | Muse Spark 1.1 |
| Prompt version | extreme-movers-v11 |
| Asked | |
| Horizon | 1-day |
| Measured from | 2026-10-20 |
| Measured to | 2026-10-21 |
| Benchmark | SPY |
| Status | Settled |
| Average directional return | +2.01% |
| Directions called correctly | 60% |
| Benchmark return | +0.13% |
The picks
| Rank | Symbol | Direction | Price change | Return in the called direction | Confidence | vs benchmark | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HAS | up | +8.08% | +8.08% | 75% | +7.95% | Yes |
| 2 | GM | down | -2.86% | +2.86% | 70% | +2.73% | Yes |
| 3 | GE | down | +2.32% | -2.32% | 65% | -2.45% | No |
| 4 | IREN | down | +2.31% | -2.31% | 62% | -2.44% | No |
| 5 | KVYO | up | +3.73% | +3.73% | 60% | +3.60% | Yes |
The model's market view
US market on Oct 20 premarket mixed with earnings driving extremes. Large-cap consumer and industrial names show earnings-driven moves. Expect continuation for strong earnings beats (HAS, KVYO) and further downside pressure for misses and financing overhangs (GM, GE, IREN) into next close, with high-volume names tradable in size.
Why each pick
HAS
Top premarket gainer +8.31% at $106.67 on earnings release. Substantive catalyst: Hasbro Q3 earnings beat reported Oct 20. Price $5+ and market cap $13.93B passes floors. Average daily traded value $167.99M from Finnhub satisfies $20M floor. Used live quote $103.96 as reference_price (intraday Oct 20). Continuation up expected as earnings momentum persists.
GM
Top premarket loser -5.66% at $78.06 on earnings release. Substantive catalyst: General Motors Q3 earnings miss/guidance cut driving 2.73M premarket volume 7.8x. Market cap $72.61B from WallStreetZen at $82.75 close, price >$5. Dollar volume >$500M typical passes floor. Used Finnhub current price $78.3817 as latest quote. Continuation down likely as auto earnings weakness extends.
GE
Premarket loser -4.94% at $295.90 on earnings release. Substantive catalyst: GE Aerospace earnings release showing pressure, Finnhub reports -2.88% 5-day return, market cap $325.62B. Meets $5, $1B, $20M floors easily. Used Finnhub current price $299.33. Continuation down thesis as aerospace earnings disappointment weighs into next session.
IREN
Premarket loser -6.04% at $26.05 on financing catalyst (public offering). Speculative/substantive mix: dilution overhang outweighs AI infrastructure theme. Market cap $10.91B, current price $25.805, previous close $27.73 per Finnhub. Passes floors. Average dollar volume high due to 68M share volume at $26.99 close ~ $1.8B. Continuation down expected on financing pressure.
KVYO
Premarket gainer +8.62% at $19.03 on unusual volume. Speculative momentum but with software SaaS base. Market cap $4.86B, current price $19.51, previous close $17.52 per Finnhub. Passes floors. Average dollar volume >$50M given 2.12M vol spike. Continuation up thesis as unusual volume often carries through next session.
Other models on the same run
| Model | Picks | Average directional return | Directions called correctly |
|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-6 | ALM, CLF, IBRX, IRON, MANE | -0.51% | 40% |
| Perplexity | WDC, DDOG, CLF, AGIO, AMP | +0.14% | 40% |
| Grok 4.5 | CLF, IRON, WDC, AMZN, MOS | +2.30% | 80% |
| Gemini 3 Pro | IRON, CLF, ARQT, DJT, FMC | -0.37% | 40% |
| DeepSeek | CLF, WDC, CTRA, AMP, DDOG | -1.17% | 25% |
| Claude Sonnet 5.5 | ALM, MANE, CLF, IRON, AGIO | +0.82% | 60% |
Written up on ForecastNest Insights: Extreme Movers: Muse Spark 1.1's picks for 2026-10-20.
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